In Virginia governor’s race, Trump’s stolen-election claim looms large
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[April 01, 2021]
By Tim Reid
MADISON, Va (Reuters) - Virginia will elect
a new governor this November, one of the first state-wide races in the
post-Trump era.
Judging from the crowded field of seven Republican hopefuls vying for
that seat, former President Donald Trump still looms large and could
well determine the outcome.
Most have not disavowed the narrative put out by Trump that he lost to
Democrat Joe Biden because of voter fraud. Candidate Amanda Chase, one
of the early favorites for the May 8 Republican nominating contest, has
gone a step further. Following the ex-president's November loss, she
encouraged him in a Facebook post to impose martial law to cling to
power. She cheered the insurrectionists who stormed the U.S. capital on
Jan. 6 as "patriots."
It’s a playbook that could spell trouble for Republican hopes in
Virginia, experts and pollsters say. The former battleground state in
recent years has elected a Democratic governor, a Democratic-controlled
state legislature and two Democratic U.S. senators, largely on the
strength of college-educated, suburban voters.
Fealty to Trump is emerging as a litmus test for Republican hopefuls
looking to appeal to the former president's devoted base to win next
month's nominating battle. But conspiracy theories about election fraud
are likely to turn off many moderate voters needed to win the Nov. 2
general election, said Frank Luntz, a veteran Republican pollster.
"This is probably the most significant political conundrum I have ever
seen," said Luntz, who called Virginia a test case for the future of the
Republican Party.
Virginia's off-year contests are traditionally viewed as a harbinger for
national political trends in the wake of a presidential election. The
Republican campaigns here signal that the election-fraud myth is now a
key plank for party hopefuls, said Al Cardenas, a veteran Republican
strategist.
"'The Big Lie' will continue to be perpetuated," he said.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll conducted March
30-31, 55% of Republicans believe that Biden's win was "the result of
illegal voting or election rigging," and just 27% said they believe he
won legitimately.
Trump lost Virginia by 10 points in November, doubling his 5-point
defeat in 2016 in large part because his scorched-earth politics
repelled moderate, suburban and female voters.
Under state law, incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam can't run
for a second, consecutive term. Several Democrats are looking to replace
him, including Terry McAuliffe, who held the office from 2014 to 2018.
McAuliffe said he found it “disgusting and despicable" that his
Republican rivals continue pushing the false claim that Biden's election
was illegitimate. He believes they'll pay a price in November with
Virginia voters, a good number of whom work for the federal government
and were outraged by the bloodshed unleashed by the pro-Trump mob on
Jan. 6.
"It's Looney Tunes on the other side," McAuliffe said. "They are all
trying to out-Trump each other."
Pollster Luntz said the ascendance of Chase -- a twice-elected state
senator who is leading the Republican field with nearly 20% support, two
recent polls show -- spells particular danger for the party.
The Virginia state Senate censured Chase in January in a bipartisan vote
over what it called her "conduct unbecoming of a Senator" including her
"patriots" comment. The censure resolution also noted that Chase said
Democratic state Senator Jennifer McClellan, who is Black and also
running for governor, could not represent all Virginians because she
helps lead the Black Caucus.
McClellan, in a March 16 statement, said "Chase’s bigoted comments have
no place in Virginia politics."
Chase, 51, who has been dubbed "Trump in heels," told a crowd at a
recent campaign event that her censure was punishment for standing up
for the former president. A resident of suburban Chesterfield County
near the state capital and a former supervisor at the Federal Reserve of
Richmond, she contends that her appeal is broad enough to win a
statewide contest.
“I am from the suburbs. And I win in the suburbs. I am a professional,
young, woman candidate," Chase told Reuters in an interview. She said
her Republican doubters are "establishment elite" who continue to
support losers.
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State Senator Amanda Chase, a Republican candidate for Governor of
Virginia, attends an event in Madison, Virginia U.S., March 16,
2021. Picture taken March 16, 2021. REUTERS/Tim Reid
Rich Anderson, chairman of the Republican Party in Virginia,
declined to comment on Chase when asked if he had concerns about her
ability to win a general election.
“I’ve worked very hard to keep my thumb off the scale,” he said.
'HANGOVER FROM TRUMP'
In recent polls conducted by YouGov and Christopher Newport
University in Newport News, Virginia, Chase leads her rivals by
almost double-digit margins heading into next month's race for the
Republican Party's nomination. She has 19% and 17% support
respectively in those polls, with her nearest rivals polling at 10%.
The contest remains fluid: Both polls showed 55% of self-identified
Republicans are still undecided.
After months of infighting over the methods of selecting their
nominees for November, the state Republican Party's governing board
last month opted this year to replace its traditional primary
election with a convention due to what it said were COVID-19
concerns. Voters will be able to cast ballots at 37 drive-up
locations across the state.
Another change is a move to so-called rank-choice voting, in which
voters cast ballots for multiple candidates by their first choice,
second choice and so on. If no candidate secures more than 50% of
the vote on the first ballot, the candidate in last place is
eliminated and their ballots redistributed based on their voters'
second-choice picks. The process repeats until a nominee emerges
with over 50% support.
Chase had called for a statewide primary. She told Reuters she
believed this year's system had been rigged against her, because in
a primary she would need just a plurality of votes to win.
John March, a spokesman for the state Republican Party, would not
comment on her accusation.
Interviews with a dozen Virginians who intend to vote in November
revealed sharp divisions over Chase.
In the suburban enclave of Alexandria in northern Virginia,
communications specialist Steve Fong, 53, said he finds the
stolen-election narrative offensive, and Chase too extreme. “I could
not even consider voting for her," he said.
Mary Slaughter, 65, who runs a landscaping business in the rural
community of Natural Bridge, said the presidential election was
"clearly stolen" and that she would vote for Chase in November if
she becomes the Republican nominee. “She’s a female Donald Trump,"
Slaughter said approvingly.
Other Republican hopefuls for governor have likewise put voter fraud
at the forefront of their campaigns.
Glenn Youngkin, a former hedge fund executive, is calling for an
“election integrity task force.” Businessman Pete Snyder is running
an ad promising to "stop liberals from rigging the system." Peter
Doran, a former think tank CEO, touts a "Voter Integrity Plan" on
his website.
The campaigns did not respond to questions asking if their candidate
believed Biden was the legitimate winner of November's election.
The one Republican candidate who has declared Biden the winner is
Kirk Cox, the former Virginia House speaker who lost his majority in
2019 in large part due to Trump’s unpopularity in the suburbs.
Cox said he does not believe his stance will damage him in next
month's nominating fight, citing his long conservative record of
defending gun rights and opposing abortion.
The ranked-choice system opens the door for candidates like Cox to
win if they receive more second-choice votes than Chase.
But any Republican faces an uphill battle to win back the suburban
voters who left the party on Trump's watch, says Bob Holsworth, a
non-partisan analyst of Virginia politics.
"There is a large hangover from the Trump era that is not going to
be erased here in Virginia," Holsworth said.
(Reporting by Tim Reid. Additional reporting by Chris Kahn in New
York. Editing by Soyoung Kim and Marla Dickerson)
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