Analysis: Myanmar's neighbour Thailand unlikely to toughen stance on
coup
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[April 02, 2021]
By Kay Johnson and Panarat Thepgumpanat
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand has slightly
hardened its language on Myanmar by saying it is "gravely concerned"
about escalating bloodshed since a Feb. 1 coup, but close military ties
and fears of a flood of refugees mean it is unlikely to go further,
analysts say.
That leaves Thailand out of step with some members of the 10-strong
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as they seek to ramp up
pressure on the junta, but could also position it as a possible
mediator.
"(Thailand’s position) is difficult, but I think there is an opportunity
because we’ve become an important partner," Panitan Wattanayagorn, a
political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, told Reuters.
The closeness of the Thai and Myanmar armies was underscored by a
request from Myanmar's junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, to Thai Prime
Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to "support democracy" within days of ousting
elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Prayuth, who voiced that support, had himself seized power in a 2014
coup when army chief, before taking on his current civilian role in 2019
and rejecting opposition accusations that the vote was manipulated.
The personal relationship began much earlier: within armies that appear
to have long put behind them the historic rivalry between countries that
used to be known as Burma and Siam.
In 2018, Min Aung Hlaing was awarded Thailand's King Grand Cross of the
Most Exalted Order of the White Elephant "in honour of the support he
has shown for the Thai military," the Bangkok Post said at the time.
BROTHERHOOD
"For them, the military brotherhood is very, very important," said
Lalita Hingkanonta, a history professor at Thailand's Kasetsart
University.
"I don't think that the escalation of violence will change the decision
of the Thai government to accept more refugees...I think they just want
to be friends with Myanmar more."
Thailand potentially has more at stake in Myanmar than any other member
of ASEAN, as it shares a 2,400-km (1,500-mile) border that is also
Myanmar's longest with any neighbour.
The geographical position, and a tradition of cautious diplomacy have
been reasons for its particular care in remarks on the coup - only
toughening its wording slightly after the civilian death toll topped 500
in Myanmar's crackdown on anti-coup protesters.
Thailand's wording has still been much milder than that of ASEAN
democracies Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore.
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People who are fleeing the violence in Myanmar sit in a boat
as they approach a Thai soldier at the border village of Mae
Sam Laep, Mae Hong Son province, Thailand March 30, 2021.
REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun/File Photo
The border risks were highlighted by a surge of several thousand
refugees this week fleeing bombing by Myanmar's forces of ethnic
Karen rebels, an exodus reminiscent of the tens of thousands who
fled Myanmar's wars in previous decades.
Although Thailand denied that the latest refugees were being pushed
back, they complained of having been blocked by Thai border guards,
while a local Thai official told a meeting that it was official
policy to bar their entry.
GESTURES
While Thailand might come under diplomatic pressure to accept
refugees or take a tougher stance, Lalita said Prayuth's government
was unlikely to be moved.
"They would do something to respond to the international pressure,
they would do some small things, just to show that, hey, we are
responding very well to your concern. But that's it."
Business links are also strong.
Foreign direct investment by Thai businesses ranks behind only China
and Singapore, with more than $11 billion approved since 1988.
Annual cross-border trade stood at more than $9 billion in 2019 and
many Thai businesses rely on Myanmar migrant workers - who
officially number 1.6 million.
Thailand matters even more for Myanmar, accounting for nearly a
quarter of exports in 2019, mostly natural gas.
But Thailand was unlikely to use its potential economic leverage
with any sanctions on trade, said Piti Srisangnam, of the ASEAN
Studies Center at Chulalongkorn University.
He suggested Thailand might best pursue diplomacy behind the scenes,
to try to encourage Myanmar's generals to curb violence and launch
talks with ousted civilians now locked up or branded as traitors.
"If you have one friend you've known for a very long time, and one
day he commits murder, it doesn't mean you won't be friends with
him, right?" he said.
"You are still friends, but the best thing is to talk to him, to
show that the thing he has done is very wrong."
(Writing by Kay Johnson; Editing by Matthew Tostevin and Clarence
Fernandez)
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