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 The cinema, which had been
showing movies since the silent film era, served
notice in February that it was permanently
closing because of the impact of COVID-19. The
marquee is now blank, and cardboard and paper
cover the box office window.
"It's kind of like losing a friend," said
Mogannam, now 57, who owns a retail shipping
outlet near the theater, which had been renamed
the CineArts at the Empire.
As vaccinated Americans emerge from their homes,
they also may find their neighborhood theater is
not there to greet them.
An eight-cinema chain in New England said it
will not reopen. The same fate hit a Houston art
house beloved by director Richard Linklater and,
in a shock to Hollywood, more than 300 screens
run by Los Angeles-based Pacific Theatres. That
includes the Cinerama Dome, a landmark that
hosted several red-carpet movie premieres.
Following a year of closures, theaters face
deferred rent bills plus media companies' focus
on drawing customers to streaming services. Up
to one-fourth of the roughly 40,000 screens in
the United States could disappear in the next
few years, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael
Pachter said.
The National Association of Theatre Owners
rejects that estimate, spokesman Patrick
Corcoran said, noting that similar dire warnings
accompanying the advent of television and the
switch to digital screens never came to pass.
Hollywood filmmakers want cinemas to thrive.
"It's the only place where the art dominates,"
said "Avatar" director James Cameron. "When you
watch something on streaming, the other people
in the room with you are welcome to interject,
to pause to go to the bathroom, to text."
At theaters, "we literally make a pact with
ourselves to go and spend two to three hours in
a focused enjoyment of the art."
"For 300 people to laugh and cry at the same
time, strangers, not just your family in your
house, that's a very powerful thing," said Chloe
Zhao, Oscar-nominated director of best picture
nominee "Nomadland."
At the Academy Awards on Sunday, the movie
industry will "make a case for why cinema
matters," producer Stacey Sher said. While
acknowledging the hardship of the pandemic, "we
also have to fight for cinema and our love of it
and the way it has gotten us through things,"
she said.
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 About 58% of theaters have
reopened in the United States and Canada, most
restricted to 50% capacity or less. The biggest
operators - AMC, Cinemark and Cineworld - make
up roughly half the overall market.
Industry leaders project optimism, forecasting a
big rebound after restrictions ease and studios
unleash new blockbusters. Coming
attractions include a new Bond adventure, the
ninth "Fast & Furious" film, a "Top Gun" sequel
and several Marvel superhero movies.
"Avatar 2," Cameron's follow-up to the
highest-grossing film of all time, is set to
debut in December 2022. Some box office analysts
predict 2022 ticket sales will hit a record.
Supporters point to late March release "Godzilla
vs. Kong," which brought in roughly $48.5
million at U.S. and Canadian box offices over
its first five days, even though audiences could
stream it on HBO Max.
"That was a big win for the entire industry,"
said Rich Daughtridge, president and chief
executive of Warehouse Cinemas in Frederick,
Maryland.
But near- and long-term challenges loom,
particularly for smaller cinemas.
Theaters are negotiating with landlords over
back rent. A federal aid program was delayed due
to technical problems.
Plus, media companies are bringing movies to
homes sooner. Executives say streaming is their
priority, pouring billions into programming made
to watch in living rooms as they compete with
Netflix Inc.
Most at risk are theaters with one or two
screens, Wedbush Securities' Pachter said. He
said his best guess is between 5,000 and 10,000
screens could go permanently dark in coming
years.
"I think we'll see a gradual decline in the
number of screens," Pachter said, "just like
we've seen a gradual decline in the number of
mom-and-pop grocery stores and bookstores."
(Reporting by Lisa Richwine; Additional
reporting by Rollo Ross in Los Angeles, Alicia
Powell in New York and Nathan Frandino in San
Francisco; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
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