LDN - Business

Dollar resumes downtrend after worst week since May

[August 02, 2021] By Sujata Rao

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar lurched lower on Monday, back towards the one-month lows hit last week when it became clear the Fed was in no hurry to tighten policy and policymakers broadly shared Chairman Jerome Powell's view that rate rises were "a ways away".

Data from the U.S. CFTC shows speculators rowed back into the dollar in the week through July 27, with net dollar longs at $3.56 billion, the largest since last March. However, that was before the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting where the message was unequivocally dovish. [CFTC/] [IMM/FX]

U.S. Treasury bond yields fell after the meeting, and real yields - adjusted for inflation - hit record lows. The Fed's dovish post-meeting statement was echoed by Fed Governor Lael Brainard who said on Friday "employment has some distance to go".

The dollar index eased 0.15% to 91.97 by 1130 GMT, just off Friday's one-month low of 91.775. The index dropped 0.88% last week, its worst since early-May.

Earlier in July, it touched a 3-1/2-month high at 93.194 as traders had positioned for a speedy start to tapering.

Graphic: Dollar index, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/mkt/znpnedqewvl/dollar.PNG

Societe Generale strategist Kenneth Broux expects the dollar to trade in a range until the Fed's Jackson hole summit where the Fed may signal the timing to start winding down stimulus.

"The dollar has had a very good few weeks and we are up 4% from the lows so some consolidation is in order," Broux said.

Markets await the July non-farm payrolls report, due on Friday, the last big jobs release before Jackson Hole. A Reuters poll forecast a 926,000 increase, the biggest for 11 months.

Broux said, however, while there could be "a bit of noise around the payrolls, in August it's all about (thin) liquidity and what message China will send".

He was referring to Beijing's crackdowns on a range of sectors, which have caused outflows from Chinese stocks and spillovers worldwide. It also helped to push the yuan to three month lows against the dollar.

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A picture illustration shows U.S. 100 dollar bank notes taken in Tokyo August 2, 2011. REUTERS/Yuriko Nakao/File Photo

While markets have since steadied and the yuan recovered to around 6.46, China's central bank pledged over the weekend to maintain a prudent, flexible and targeted monetary policy, a sign of more easing to come.

Data showed Chinese factory activity growth slowed in July.

The euro showed little reaction to a Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reading of July manufacturing at 62.8, a touch above the "flash" number of 62.6. it firmed 0.16% at $1.1885 having last week risen as high as $1.1909.

NatWest analysts said "exit strategies", from stimulus as well as lockdowns, would drive currencies in the near-term.

With that in mind, investors will watch this week's meetings at the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia.

While sterling is supported by the possibility of an early end to BOE stimulus, the RBA could well backtrack on its previous decision to taper stimulus, as protracted COVID-19 lockdowns drag on growth.

The Aussie was up slightly at $0.7359.

"I see no point chasing the Aussie higher in the short-run if China is cracking down on commodity prices and there is no acceleration in (Australia's) vaccine progress," Broux added.

Elsewhere, the euro's recovery took some appreciation pressure off the Swiss franc which slipped 0.2% off Friday's six-month highs. Data showed a rise last week in sight deposits at Swiss banks - a proxy for central bank intervention.

(Reporting by Sujata Rao; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Peter Graff and Barbara Lewis)

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