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 While Illinois lost population for the first time in 200 years
during the 2020 U.S. Census, it was the rural areas that took the biggest hit as
Chicagoland saw growth.
The U.S. Census Bureau released its first batch of detailed redistricting data
on Aug. 12, offering the first look at official census tallies beyond the
state-level totals. Previous Census data confirmed Illinois for the first timein
200 years lost population in the decennial U.S. Census count. The state shed
18,124 residents between the 2010 and 2020 counts, dropping the state to
6th-most populous in the nation – now behind Pennsylvania – and one of only
three states losing population.
The new data shows Illinois’ population decline was widespread, with 87 of the
state’s 102 counties shedding population in 2020 compared to 2010.
Counties throughout the state shed population to varying degrees, with the
exception of the northeastern-most counties surrounding Chicago, which
experienced more concentrated population growth. Cook County added 80,866
residents; while Will, Kendall, DuPage, and Lake Counties each added more than
10,000 residents; Grundy, McHenry, and Kane Counties saw lesser growth of fewer
than 2,500 residents.
Of the counties not within the Chicagoland area, Champaign County grew the most
adding 4,784 residents, while Monroe County added 2,005 residents. Meanwhile,
McLean, Williamson, Johnson, Effingham and Carroll counties’ population grew by
less than 1,400 each.
Despite population growth in some pockets of the state, the more widespread
population decline led Illinois’ population totals to decline relative to the
2010 census. Only two other states in the nation – Mississippi and West Virginia
– saw population decline according to the official Census count. Perhaps even
more concerning for Illinois’ population in the long-term, is that even the
parts of the state that are growing the most are growing far slower than the
national average and comparable areas.
Chicago, which added approximately 50,000 residents, is the slowest growing of
the nation’s 10 most-populous cities, growing at 1.9% during the decade. The
next-slowest-growing large city was Los Angeles, which grew 2.8% during the past
decade. All other large cities were growing more than twice as fast as Chicago.
Meanwhile, the larger Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metropolitan
statistical area, which represents nearly all of the population growth in the
state, was growing at an even slower rate of 1.7% during the past decade.
These figures, while still a concerning sign for Illinois, beat expectations.
There are discrepancies between the Census Bureau’s estimates of the population
and their official decennial Census count, which showed a much smaller
population loss that hasn’t yet been addressed by the Census Bureau.
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Questions over the accuracy of the official count
have been raised on numerous occasions in recent years. One of the
primary ways the Census Bureau checks the official count is to
compare it with their previous estimates.
It is also unclear what effect Illinois’ increased Census outreach
spending, which was second highest in the nation, had on the
official results. It is possible increased spending resulted in a
more accurate count in 2020 than in 2010, which could explain the
difference in the official count from the estimates. The 2020
estimates are based on the 2010 official count.
This wouldn’t be the first time improvements in the
Census process have resulted in official counts that are different
from the estimates. For example, the 2020 census was the first time
households were allowed to respond online, which almost assuredly
improves responsiveness.
It could be more likely in this scenario that the components of
population change are still relatively accurate, just that the 2010
base population level was incorrect.
Regardless of the reason for the discrepancies, or what is actually
happening with population change in Illinois, the new census data
also has potential consequences for Illinois’ legislative map. The
data provided the detailed count of populations needed to accurately
apportion districts of equal population, as required by the state
and federal constitutions. However, state lawmakers passed maps in a
partisan fashion earlier this year without having access to this
data, meaning there was no way to ensure their accuracy.
 Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker had during the campaign and repeatedly
as governor promised to veto any gerrymandered maps, but he walked
back that promise. He fully broke it June 4 when he signed both
legislative and judicial redistricting plans into law.
It is likely these maps will end up in court, where they could be
sent back to the Illinois General Assembly to be redrawn. Or, the
Illinois Supreme Court justices might follow the lead of the
Pennsylvania Supreme Court and redraw the district lines on their
own.
Much of this controversy could have been avoided had the Illinois
Constitution been amended to take redistricting out of the hands of
lawmakers and put in the hands of an independent redistricting
commission.
Fifteen states have already established such commissions for
legislative redistricting, some with positive results. Illinois
needs to do the same if it is ever going to avoid the partisan
gerrymandering that has been the hallmark of past redistricting
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