Profits and poppy: Afghanistan's illegal drug trade a boon for Taliban
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[August 16, 2021]
By Jonathan Landay
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States
spent more than $8 billion over 15 years on efforts to deprive the
Taliban of their profits from Afghanistan's opium and heroin trade, from
poppy eradication to airstrikes and raids on suspected labs.
That strategy failed.
As the United States wraps up its longest war, Afghanistan remains the
world's biggest illicit opiate supplier and looks certain to remain so
as the Taliban is on the brink of taking power in Kabul, said current
and former U.S. and U.N. officials and experts.
Widespread destruction during the war, millions uprooted from their
homes, foreign aid cuts, and losses of local spending by departed
U.S.-led foreign troops are fueling an economic and humanitarian crisis
that is likely to leave many destitute Afghans dependent on the
narcotics trade for survival.
That dependence threatens to bring more instability as the Taliban,
other armed groups, ethnic warlords, and corrupt public officials vie
for drug profits and power.
Some U.N. and U.S. officials worry Afghanistan's slide into chaos is
creating conditions for even higher illicit opiate production, a
potential boon to the Taliban.
"The Taliban have counted on the Afghan opium trade as one of their main
sources of income," Cesar Gudes, the head of the Kabul office of the
U.N. Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC), told Reuters. "More production
brings drugs with a cheaper and more attractive price, and therefore a
wider accessibility."
With the insurgents entering Kabul on Sunday, "these are the best
moments in which these illicit groups tend to position themselves" to
expand their business, Gudes said.
The Taliban banned poppy growing in 2000 as they sought international
legitimacy, but faced a popular backlash and later mostly changed their
stance, according to experts.
Despite the threats posed by Afghanistan's illicit drug business,
experts noted, the United States and other nations rarely mention in
public the need to address the trade - estimated by the UNODC at more
than 80% of global opium and heroin supplies.
"We've stood by on the sidelines and, unfortunately, allowed the Taliban
to become probably the largest funded non-designated terrorist
organization on the globe," said a U.S. official with knowledge of
Afghanistan's drug trade.
"The U.S. and international partners have continued to pull out and not
addressed poppy cultivation," the official said on condition of
anonymity. "What you're going to find is that it has exploded."
Asked for comment, a State Department official said the United States
would continue to support the Afghan people, "including our ongoing
counternarcotics efforts," but declined to say how aid would continue
should U.S. assistance stop if the Taliban seize power.
POPPY CULTIVATION SOARS
Afghan farmers weigh myriad factors in deciding how much poppy to plant.
These range from annual precipitation and the price of wheat, the main
alternative crop to poppy, to world opium and heroin prices.
Yet even during droughts and wheat shortages, when wheat prices rocket,
Afghan farmers have grown poppy and extracted opium gum that is refined
into morphine and heroin. In recent years, many have installed
Chinese-made solar panels to power deep water wells.
Three of the last four years have seen some of Afghanistan's highest
levels of opium production, according to the UNODC. Even as the COVID-19
pandemic raged, poppy cultivation soared 37% last year, it reported in
May.
Illicit narcotics are "the country's largest industry except for war,"
said Barnett Rubin, a former State Department adviser on Afghanistan.
The estimated all-time high for opium production was set in 2017 at
9,900 tons worth some $1.4 billion in sales by farmers or roughly 7% of
Afghanistan's GDP, the UNODC reported.
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An Afghan man works on a poppy field in Nangarhar province,
Afghanistan April 20, 2016. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
When the value of drugs for export and local
consumption are taken into account, along with imported precursor
chemicals, the UNODC estimated the country’s overall illicit opiate
economy that year at as much as $6.6 billion.
The Taliban and public officials have long been
involved in the narcotics trade, experts said, although some dispute
the extent of the insurgents' role and profits.
The United Nations and Washington contend the Taliban are involved
in all facets, from poppy planting, opium extraction, and
trafficking to exacting "taxes" from cultivators and drug labs to
charging smugglers fees for shipments bound for Africa, Europe,
Canada, Russia, the Middle East, and other parts of Asia.
Some of those shipments are hurled across the heavily patrolled
border to traffickers in Iran with rudimentary catapults, reported
David Mansfield, a leading researcher into Afghanistan's illicit
drug trade.
U.N. officials reported that the Taliban likely earned more than
$400 million between 2018 and 2019 from the drug trade. A May 2021
U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan (SIGAR) report quoted
a U.S. official as estimating they derive up to 60% of their annual
revenue from illicit narcotics.
Some experts dispute that data.
Mansfield says his field studies show the most the Taliban can earn
from illicit opiates is about $40 million annually, predominantly
from levies on opium production, heroin labs and drug shipments.
The insurgents, he said, make more money exacting fees on legal
imports and exports at roadside checkpoints.
Washington spent an estimated $8.6 billion between 2002 and 2017 to
throttle Afghanistan's drug trade in order to deny the Taliban
funds, according to a 2018 SIGAR report. Apart from poppy
eradication, the United States and allies backed interdiction raids
and alternative crop programs, airstrikes on suspected heroin labs
and other measures.
Those efforts "didn't really have much success," retired U.S. Army
General Joseph Votel, who commanded U.S. Central Command from
2016-2019, told Reuters.
Instead, experts said, they stoked anger against the government in
Kabul and its foreign backers – and sympathy for the Taliban - among
farmers and laborers who depend on opium production to feed their
families.
The Taliban learned that lesson from their ban on poppy growing in
2000, said Brookings Institution scholar Vanda Felbab-Brown.
Despite a steep decline in production, the ban ignited "a huge
political storm against the Taliban and it was one reason why there
were such dramatic defections after the U.S. invasion," she said.
Therefore, experts said, it is unlikely the Taliban will prohibit
poppy cultivation should they gain power.
"A future government," said Mansfield, "will need to tread carefully
to avoid alienating its rural constituency and provoking resistance
and violent rebellion."
(Reporting by Jonathan Landay; Editing by Arshad Mohammed, Mary
Milliken and Daniel Wallis)
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