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 Delta hit Israel in June, just as the country began to reap the
benefits of one of the world's fastest vaccine roll-outs.
With an open economy and most curbs scrapped, Israel went from
single-digit daily infections and zero deaths to around 7,500 daily
cases last week, 600 people hospitalized in serious condition and
more than 150 people dying in that week alone.
On July 30, it began administering a third dose of the Pfizer/BioNtech
vaccine to people over 60, the first country to do so. On Thursday
it expanded eligibility to 40-year-olds and up whose second dose was
given at least 5 months prior, saying the age may drop further.
In the past 10 days, the pandemic is abating among the first age
group, more than a million of whom have received a third vaccine
dose, according to Israeli health ministry data and scientists
interviewed by Reuters.
The rate of disease spread among vaccinated people age 60 and over -
known as the reproduction rate - began falling steadily around Aug.
13 and has dipped below 1, indicating that each infected person is
transmitting the virus to fewer than one other person. A
reproduction rate of less than 1 means an outbreak is subsiding.
https://tmsnrt.rs/3grj7kv
(Graphic: Israel, Acceleration Rate of Daily Cases: https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/ISRAEL-BOOSTERS/gkvlgglewpb/chart.png)
Scientists said booster shots are having an impact on infections,
but other factors are likely contributing to the decline as well.
"The numbers are still very high but what has changed is that the
very high increase in the rate of infections and severe cases has
diminished, as has the pace at which the pandemic is spreading,"
said Eran Segal, data scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science
and an adviser to the government.
"This is likely due to the third booster shots, an uptake in people
taking the first dose and the high number of people infected per
week, possibly up to 100,000, who now have natural immunity," Segal
said.
BOOSTER VS LOCKDOWN
After reaching one of the highest per-capita infection rates in the
world this month, the question now is whether Israel can battle its
way out of a fourth outbreak without imposing another lockdown that
would damage its economy.
Evidence has emerged showing that while the vaccine is still highly
effective in preventing serious illness, its protection diminishes
with time. But there is no consensus among scientists and agencies
that a third dose is necessary, and the World Health Organization
has said more of the world should be vaccinated with a first dose
before people receive a third dose.
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The United States has announced plans to offer booster doses to all
Americans, eight months after their second vaccine dose, citing data
showing diminishing protection. Canada, France and Germany have also
planned booster campaigns.
About a million of Israel's 9.3 million population have so far
chosen not to vaccinate at all and children under 12 are still not
eligible for the shots. On Thursday, health officials said they have
identified waning immunity among people under 40, although
relatively few have fallen seriously ill.
According to Doron Gazit, a member of the Hebrew University's
COVID-19 expert team which advises government, the rise in cases of
severely ill vaccinated people in the 60 and older group has been
steadily slowing to a halt in the last 10 days.
"We attribute this to the booster shots and to more cautious
behaviour recently," Gazit said.
More than half of those over 60 have received a third jab, according
to the Health ministry.
The rate of new severe cases among unvaccinated patients 70 and
older is now seven times that of vaccinated patients, and the gap
will continue to grow as long as infections rise, according to Gazit.
Among those over 50, that gap is four-fold.
"We are optimistic, but very cautious," Israeli Health Minister
Nitzan Horowitz told public broadcaster Kan on Sunday. "It gives us
more time, slows the spread and we're moving away from lockdown."
But even if the boosters are slowing the pandemic's pace, it is
unlikely to fend Delta off entirely.
Dvir Aran, biomedical data scientist at Technion - Israel's
Institute of Technology, said that while cases are retreating, other
measures are needed alongside boosters to stop the pandemic. "It
will take a long time until enough people get a third dose and until
then thousands more people will getting seriously ill."
Since Delta's surge, Israel has reimposed indoor mask wearing,
limitations on gatherings and ramped up rapid testing.
Its "living with COVID" policy will be tested come September, when
schools reopen after summer break and when the Jewish holiday season
starts, with families traditionally gathering to celebrate.
(Writing by Maayan Lubell; Editing by Jeffrey Heller and Dan Grebler)
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