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 More than half of eligible Israelis - about 3.5 million people -
have now been fully or partially vaccinated. Older and at-risk
groups, the first to be inoculated, are seeing a dramatic drop in
illnesses.
Among the first fully-vaccinated group there was a 53% reduction in
new cases, a 39% decline in hospitalizations and a 31% drop in
severe illnesses from mid-January until Feb. 6, said Eran Segal,
data scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot,
Israel.
(Graphic: Trends in COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations in
Israel following vaccination -
https://graphics.reuters.com/
HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/ISRAEL-RESULTS/yzdvxwojdpx/
TRENDS-PCT.jpg)
In the same period, among people under age 60 who became eligible
for shots later, new cases dropped 20% but hospitalizations and
severe illness rose 15% and 29%, respectively.
Reuters interviewed leading scientists in Israel and abroad, Israeli
health officials, hospital heads and two of the country's largest
healthcare providers about what new data shows from the world's most
efficient vaccine rollout.
The vaccine drive has provided a database offering insights into how
effective the vaccines are outside of controlled clinical trials,
and at what point countries might attain sought-after but elusive
herd immunity.
More will be known in two weeks, as teams analyse vaccine
effectiveness in younger groups of Israelis, as well as targeted
populations such as people with diabetes, cancer and pregnant women,
among a patient base at least 10 times larger than those in clinical
studies.
"We need to have enough variety of people in that subgroup and
enough follow-up time so you can make the right conclusions, and we
are getting to that point," said Ran Balicer, chief innovation
officer of HMO Clalit, which covers more than half the Israeli
population.
Pfizer is monitoring the Israeli rollout on a weekly basis for
insights that can be used around the world.
As a small country with universal healthcare, advanced data
capabilities and the promise of a swift rollout, Israel provided
Pfizer with a unique opportunity to study the real-world impact of
the vaccine developed with Germany's BioNTech
But the company said it remained "difficult to forecast the precise
time when herd protection may start to manifest" because of many
variables at play, including social distancing measures and the
number of new infections generated by each case, known as the
reproduction rate.
Even Israel, in the vanguard of the global vaccine drive, has
lowered expectations of emerging quickly from the pandemic because
of soaring cases.
A third national lockdown has struggled to contain transmission,
attributed to the fast-spreading UK variant of the virus. On a
positive note, the Pfizer/BioNTech shot appears to be effective
against it.
"We've so far identified the same 90% to 95% efficacy against the
British strain," said Hezi Levi, director-general of the Israeli
Health Ministry.
"It is still early though, because we have only now finished the
first week after the second dose," he said, adding: "It's too early
to say anything about the South African variant."
WHICH ARM?
Israel began its vaccination programme Dec. 19 - the day after
Hanukkah - after paying a premium for supplies of the Pfizer/BioNTech
vaccine.
Four days later, the more contagious UK variant was detected in four
people. While the vaccine is preventing illness in older people, the
variant now makes up about 80% of new cases.
Finding themselves in a race between the vaccine and the new
variant, Israel began giving shots to those over 60 and gradually
opened the programme to the rest of the population.
Every detail was digitally tracked, down to in which arm the patient
was jabbed and what vial it came from.
[to top of second column] |
 One week after receiving the
second Pfizer dose - the point at which full
protection is expected to kick in - 254 out of
416,900 people were infected, according to
Maccabi, a leading Israeli healthcare provider.
(Graphic: COVID-19 infections among vaccinated
people -
https://graphics.reuters.com/
HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/
ISRAEL-RESULTS/qmyvmwnxdvr/
INFECTIONS-AMONG-VACCINATED-POP.jpg)
Comparing this against an unvaccinated group
revealed a vaccine efficacy of 91%, Maccabi
said.
By 22 days after full vaccination, no infections
were recorded. Israeli experts
are confident the vaccines rather than lockdown measures brought the
numbers down, based on studying different cities, age groups and
pre-vaccine lockdowns.
The comparisons were "convincing in telling us this is the effect of
the vaccination," said Weizmann Institute's Segal.
With 80% of senior citizens partially or fully vaccinated, a more
complete picture will begin to emerge as soon as this week.
"And we do expect further decline in the overall cases and in the
cases of severe morbidity," said Balicer, of HMO Clalit.
VACCINES AND TRANSMISSION
There may be early signs that vaccinations are tamping down virus
transmission in addition to illness
At Israel's biggest COVID-19 testing centre, run by MyHeritage,
researchers have tracked a significant decrease in the amount of
virus infected people carry, known as cT value, among the
most-vaccinated age groups.
This suggests that even if vaccinated people get infected, they are
less likely to infect others, said MyHeritage Chief Science Officer
Yaniv Erlich.
"The data so far is probably most clear from Israel. I do believe
that these vaccines will reduce onward transmission," said Stefan
Baral, from Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in Maryland.
DIMINISHING RETURNS
It is unclear whether Israel will be able to keep up its
world-leading vaccination pace.
"When you vaccinate fast and a lot, you eventually get to the
hardcore - those who are less willing or harder to reach," said Boaz
Lev, head of the Health Ministry's advisory panel.
The vaccination pace is seen even more crucial with the British
variant's rapid transmission.
"In the race between the UK variant spreading and the vaccinations,
the end result is that we are seeing a kind of plateau in terms of
the severely ill," said Segal.
The big question is whether vaccines can eradicate the pandemic.
Michal Linial, a professor of molecular biology and bioinformatics
at Jerusalem's Hebrew University, said data from past decades
suggests viruses become endemic and seasonal.
She predicted this coronavirus would become far less aggressive,
perhaps requiring a booster shot within three years.
"The virus is not going anywhere," she concluded.
(Additional reporting by Dan Williams, Ronen Zvulun, Steven Scheer
and Julie Steenhuysen; Writing by Maayan Lubell; Editing by Bill
Berkrot)
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