Analysis: Thin Democratic control of Senate offers Biden chance for steps on climate

[January 07, 2021]  By Timothy Gardner and Valerie Volcovici

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic control of the Senate offers President-elect Joe Biden an opportunity to advance parts of his climate agenda, but the paper-thin majority likely puts sweeping global warming legislation beyond reach.

The election of Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in the Georgia run-off on Tuesday put the Senate at an even 50-50, giving Vice President-elect Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote and removing control of the chamber from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his fellow Republicans.

That virtually guarantees that Biden's nominees for departments dealing with climate policy will breeze through Senate confirmation on simple majority votes.

The nominees, including Michael Regan for administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are intent on making climate change regulation one of the pillars of the administration soon after Biden takes office on Jan. 20.

It also means Democrats could push moderate proposals that many lawmakers in both parties support, like reducing carbon emissions from transportation, advanced nuclear energy technology, and domestic production of critical minerals used in batteries and renewable energy.

It will also make it easier for Democratic lawmakers to use the Congressional Review Act to reverse some last-minute rollbacks of pollution standards by Donald Trump's administration, according to legislative experts.

But Biden's vision for a $2 trillion climate plan, including broad limits on greenhouse gas emissions or federal mandates for clean energy, may be harder to achieve through legislation in a divided Senate still gripped by rancor over the Nov. 3 election. Most bills require 60 votes in the 100-seat chamber to pass.

"You're not going to reach agreement on issues like a price on carbon anytime soon," said George David Banks, who advised Trump and former President George W. Bush on climate. "But we're still in a position to actually make a lot of progress on other big climate issues."

Some of what Biden's administration is unable to accomplish in Congress may be tackled via executive orders, which are more vulnerable to lawsuits and unwinding by future presidents.

A Biden transition official said executive action may be slow because his federal agency review teams have discovered the EPA and other agencies have been weakened more than expected during the Trump administration.

The official said on Tuesday that the incoming administration is not giving up on being able to work with both Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill, "Because we're both trying to get a future that is healthy and safe and sustainable and that grows good union-access jobs."

MODERATE POWER BROKER

One challenge for sweeping climate legislation could be getting past Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat from coal state West Virginia, who will take the chairmanship of the Senate energy committee.

Democratic 2020 U.S. presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden walks past solar panels while touring the Plymouth Area Renewable Energy Initiative in Plymouth, New Hampshire, U.S., June 4, 2019. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Manchin, who shot a mock copy of a federal climate bill with a rifle in a 2010 campaign ad when he was governor and running for the Senate, will end up with outsized power in a narrow-majority Senate, experts said.

"Legislation on ... climate change and clean energy simply must take the views of Manchin and other moderates firmly into account or those bills will have little chance of advancing," said Scott Segal, a lobbyist at law firm Bracewell.

Manchin did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Since 2010, Manchin has pushed for some bipartisan climate measures, most recently a spending bill that included money for high-tech nuclear energy and capture and storage of carbon emissions that could extend the life of some coal plants.

But he opposes policies pushed by progressives, such as expanding the Supreme Court and ending the filibuster, which requires the 60-vote majority for most bills, that they say impedes passage of bold legislation on climate.

Climate progressives will take heart that Senator Bernie Sanders, a long-time advocate for aggressive measures to fight global warming, is set to chair the Budget Committee, giving him control over the budget process.

Many budget related bills require only a simple majority and can be a vehicle for incremental climate measures such as energy efficient car and truck buying for the federal fleet.

With the majority, Democrats are also likely to increase scrutiny of the fossil fuel industry in Congress, using hearings and investigations to put public pressure on them to change practices.

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat on the environment committee's oversight panel, told Reuters he will push for a "presidential commission ... to assemble a full record of fossil fuel deceit and obstruction."

Bethany Aronhalt, a spokeswoman at the American Petroleum Institute industry group, said in response to Whitehouse's remarks that "tackling climate change will require real solutions, not partisan talking points."

(Reporting by Timothy Gardner and Valerie Volcovici; editing by Richard Valdmanis and Lincoln Feast.)

[© 2021 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.]

Copyright 2021 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.  Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content.