Neoliberal or Marxist? Polarized Peru faces volatile future either way
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[June 03, 2021]
By Marco Aquino
LIMA (Reuters) - Peru has had a turbulent
year. The Andean nation has churned through three presidents since late
2020, has the world's highest per capita COVID-19 death toll, and
experienced its worst economic crash in three decades.
Now voters in the copper-rich nation have a chance to set a new course
in elections on Sunday - a polarized run-off between surprise socialist
candidate Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori, the free-market scion of a
powerful political dynasty.
Whoever wins, the South American country is set for a volatile and
uncertain road ahead, analysts say.
Voters are almost evenly split between the two candidates, who offer
sharply contrasting visions for the world's no. 2 copper producer and
its 33 million people.
Castillo, whose socialist Free Peru party has been buoyed by support in
poorer rural regions, has a slim lead in the polls, ahead of
conservative neo-liberal Fujimori, who is popular in capital Lima.
Pollsters say the vote is too close to call.
The congressional vote in April saw around a dozen parties win seats,
meaning there will be a fragmented legislature with no one party holding
a majority.
Giovanna Peñaflor, a political analyst, said the stark divisions meant
the new government would be vulnerable to more volatility, whoever won.
"Instability will be the norm in the years ahead, because we have weak
institutions and because the government will lack legitimacy because
things are so polarized," she said.
"In theory, this election was supposed to end (instability), to bring a
government with some legitimacy to make reforms, but this won't happen
and the political struggle won't stop."
Over the course of one week in November last year, one president was
impeached by Congress and another forced out of office after fiery
protests from young people angry at what they saw as an illegitimate
coup led to at last two deaths. Since then, Peru has been ruled by
interim President Francisco Sagasti. The uncertainty has rattled Peru's
once-steady markets.
In marches this week ahead of the vote, protest placards claimed
Castillo would turn Peru into a "communist or chavista" state, a
reference to Venezuela's former leftist President Hugo Chavez. Castillo
rejects the comparison.
Others lambasted Fujimori over corruption charges she denies and
criticized her as "authoritarian," linking her to her father Alberto
Fujimori's divisive presidency in the 1990s. He is currently in jail for
human rights abuses and corruption.
"It's because of the Fujimoris that we have a constitution with a
neo-liberal economic model that benefits multinational firms to the
detriment of the people," said one university student who asked not to
be named at an 'anti-Keiko' march on Tuesday.
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Peru's presidential candidate Pedro Castillo of Peru Libre party,
who will compete head-to-head with right-wing candidate Keiko
Fujimori in a second-round ballot in June, waves to supporters
during a rally in Lima, Peru April 27, 2021. REUTERS/Angela Ponce
'FIGHT FOR DEMOCRACY'
Fujimori supporters, who include the country's storied writer Mario
Vargas Llosa, say Castillo would risk destabilizing Peru, which has
been a relative safe haven for investors and miners in the region
despite the recent political turmoil.
"We have to fight for democracy, we do not want to be a Venezuela,
we do not want to be Cuba," said Roberto Rios, a pro-Fujimori
protester who participated in one of the marches through downtown
Lima on the weekend.
"We want to maintain our freedoms, that's all."
Castillo, a primary school teacher little-known until his surprise
win in April's first-round vote, plans to rewrite Peru's
constitution, taking vastly more profits from miners and increasing
spending on education and health.
He has said that mining firms are "plundering" Peru's mineral wealth
and threatened to nationalize strategic sectors if needed, though
has moderated his stance as the campaign has proceeded and he has
sought to win middle-ground voters.
Fujimori, who came within a percentage point of winning the 2016
election, has shot up in opinion polls over the last month, playing
up her security credentials following a May attack by Shining Path
militants that left 16 dead.
The Fujimori family is loved and loathed in almost equal measure in
Peru. Some herald Alberto Fujimori for his fight against the rebel
group in the 1990s and say he laid the foundations for economic
growth after years of crisis and hyperinflation.
Others condemn his authoritarian streak, a legacy that weighs
heavily upon the younger Fujimori's shoulders.
Analysts also said a close vote could spark off more protests, if
the losing side did not accept the result.
"Crises have made the country quite unstable already," said Peñaflor.
"There will be people who are interested in pulling the rug out from
under whoever is in power."
(Reporting by Marco Aquino; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Rosalba
O'Brien)
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