Exclusive: Amid accusations of genocide from the West, China policies
could cut millions of Uyghur births in Xinjiang – report
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[June 07, 2021]
By Cate Cadell
BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese birth control
policies could cut between 2.6 to 4.5 million births of the Uyghur and
other ethnic minorities in southern Xinjiang within 20 years, up to a
third of the region’s projected minority population, according to a new
analysis by a German researcher.
The report, shared exclusively with Reuters ahead of publication, also
includes a previously unreported cache of research produced by Chinese
academics and officials on Beijing’s intent behind the birth control
policies in Xinjiang, where official data shows birth-rates have already
dropped by 48.7% between 2017 and 2019.
Adrian Zenz’s research comes amid growing calls among some western
countries for an investigation into whether China’s actions in Xinjiang
amount to genocide, a charge Beijing vehemently denies.
The research by Zenz is the first such peer reviewed analysis of the
long-term population impact of Beijing’s multi-year crackdown in the
western region. Rights groups, researchers and some residents say the
policies include newly enforced birth limits on Uyghur and other mainly
Muslim ethnic minorities, the transfers of workers to other regions and
the internment of an estimated one million Uyghurs and other ethnic
minorities in a network of camps.
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"This (research and analysis) really shows the intent behind the Chinese
government’s long-term plan for the Uyghur population,” Zenz told
Reuters.
The Chinese government has not made public any official target for
reducing the proportion of Uyghur and other ethnic minorities in
Xinjiang. But based on analysis of official birth data, demographic
projections and ethnic ratios proposed by Chinese academics and
officials, Zenz estimates Beijing’s policies could increase the
predominant Han Chinese population in southern Xinjiang to around 25%
from 8.4% currently.
"This goal is only achievable if they do what they have been doing,
which is drastically suppressing (Uyghur) birth rates,” Zenz said.
China has previously said the current drop in ethnic minority birth
rates is due to the full implementation of the region’s existing birth
quotas as well as development factors, including an increase in per
capita income and wider access to family planning services.
"The so-called ‘genocide’ in Xinjiang is pure nonsense,” China’s Foreign
Ministry told Reuters in a statement. "It is a manifestation of the
ulterior motives of anti-China forces in the United States and the West
and the manifestation of those who suffer from Sinophobia."
Official data showing the decrease in Xinjiang birth rates between 2017
and 2019 “does not reflect the true situation” and Uyghur birth rates
remain higher than Han ethnic people in Xinjiang, the ministry added.
The new research compares a population projection done by Xinjiang-based
researchers for the government-run Chinese Academy of Sciences based on
data predating the crackdown, to official data on birth-rates and what
Beijing describes as “population optimization” measures for Xinjiang’s
ethnic minorities introduced since 2017.
It found the population of ethnic minorities in Uyghur-dominated
southern Xinjiang would reach between 8.6-10.5 million by 2040 under the
new birth prevention policies. That compares to 13.14 million projected
by Chinese researchers using data pre-dating the implemented birth
policies and a current population of around 9.47 million.
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Zenz, an independent researcher with the Victims of Communism Memorial
Foundation, a bipartisan non-profit based in Washington, D.C., has
previously been condemned by Beijing for his research which has been
critical of China’s policies on detaining Uyghurs, mass labour transfers
and birth reduction in Xinjiang.
China’s foreign ministry has accused Zenz of “misleading” people with
data and, in response to Reuters’ questions, said “his lies aren’t worth
refuting.”
Zenz’s research was accepted for publication by the Central Asian
Survey, a quarterly academic journal, after peer review on June 3.
Reuters shared the research and methodology with more than a dozen
experts in population analysis, birth prevention policies and
international human rights law, who said the analysis and conclusions
were sound.
Some of the experts cautioned that demographic projections over a period
of decades can be affected by unforeseen factors. The Xinjiang
government has not publicly set official ethnic quota or population size
goals for ethnic populations in Southern Xinjiang, and quotas used in
the analysis are based on proposed figures from Chinese officials and
academics.
'END UYGHUR DOMINANCE'
The move to prevent births among Uyghur and other minorities is in sharp
contrast with China’s wider birth policies.
Last week, Beijing announced married couples can have three children, up
from two, the largest such policy shift since the one child policy was
scrapped in 2016 in response to China's rapidly ageing population. The
announcement contained no reference to any specific ethnic groups.
Before then, measures officially limited the country’s majority Han
ethnic group and minority groups including Uyghur to two children -
three in rural areas. However, Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities had
historically been partially excluded from those birth limits as part of
preferential policies designed to benefit the minority communities.
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![](../images/060721pics/news_o27.jpg)
Demonstrators hold placards during a protest against Uyghur
genocide, in London, Britain April 22, 2021. REUTERS/Peter
Nicholls/File Photo
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Some residents, researchers and rights groups say the
newly enforced rules now disproportionately impact Islamic
minorities, who face detention for exceeding birth quotas, rather
than fines as elsewhere in China.
In a Communist Party record leaked in 2020, also reported by Zenz, a
re-education camp in southern Xinjiang’s Karakax county listed birth
violations as the reason for internment in 149 cases out of 484
detailed in the list. China has called the list a “fabrication”.
Birth quotas for ethnic minorities have become strictly enforced in
Xinjiang since 2017, including though the separation of married
couples, and the use of sterilisation procedures, intrauterine
devices (IUDs) and abortions, three Uyghur people and one health
official inside Xinjiang told Reuters.
Two of the Uyghur people said they had direct family members who
were detained for having too many children. Reuters could not
independently verify the detentions.
"It is not up to choice," said the official, based in southern
Xinjiang, who asked not to be named because they fear reprisals from
the local government. “All Uyghurs must comply… it is an urgent
task."
The Xinjiang government did not respond to a request for comment
about whether birth limits are more strictly enforced against
Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities. Xinjiang officials have
previously said all procedures are voluntary.
Still, in Xinjiang counties where Uyghurs are the majority ethnic
group, birth rates dropped 50.1% in 2019, for example, compared to a
19.7% drop in majority ethnic Han counties, according to official
data compiled by Zenz.
Zenz’s report says analyses published by state funded academics and
officials between 2014 and 2020 show the strict implementation of
the policies are driven by national security concerns, and are
motivated by a desire to dilute the Uyghur population, increase Han
migration and boost loyalty to the ruling Communist Party.
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For example, 15 documents created by state funded academics and
officials showcased in the Zenz report include comments from
Xinjiang officials and state-affiliated academics referencing the
need to increase the proportion of Han residents and decrease the
ratio of Uyghurs or described the high concentration of Uyghurs as a
threat to social stability.
"The problem in southern Xinjiang is mainly the unbalanced
population structure … the proportion of the Han population is too
low,” Liu Yilei, an academic and the deputy secretary general of the
Communist Party committee of the Xinjiang Production and
Construction Corps, a government body with administrative authority
in the region, told a July 2020 symposium, published on the Xinjiang
University website.
Xinjiang must “end the dominance of the Uyghur group”, said Liao
Zhaoyu, dean of the institute of frontier history and geography at
Xinjiang’s Tarim University at an academic event in 2015, shortly
before the birth policies and broader internment programme were
enforced in full.
Liao did not respond to a request for comment. Liu could not be
reached for comment. The foreign ministry did not comment on their
remarks, or on the intent behind the policies.
INTENT TO DESTROY?
Zenz and other experts point to the 1948 Convention on the
Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which lists
birth prevention targeting an ethnic group as one act that could
qualify as genocide.
The United States government and parliaments in countries including
Britain and Canada have described China's birth prevention and mass
detention policies in Xinjiang as genocide.
However, some academics and politicians say there is insufficient
evidence of intent by Beijing to destroy an ethnic population in
part or full to meet the threshold for a genocide determination.
No such formal criminal charges have been laid against Chinese or
Xinjiang officials because of a lack of available evidence on and
insight into the policies in the region. Prosecuting officials would
also be complex and require a high bar of proof.
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Additionally, China is not party to the International Criminal Court
(ICC), the top international court that prosecutes genocide and
other serious crimes, and which can only bring action against states
within its jurisdiction. (This story refiles to correct typo in
headline)
(Reporting by Cate Cadell; Editing by Lincoln Feast)
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