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 The June 3-17 snap survey of 40 healthcare specialists, doctors,
scientists, virologists, epidemiologists and professors from around
the world showed a significant pickup in vaccinations will likely
provide some cover to a fresh outbreak.
Of those who ventured a prediction, over 85% of respondents, or 21
of 24, said the next wave will hit by October, including three who
forecast it as early as August and 12 in September. The remaining
three said between November and February.
But over 70% of experts, or 24 of 34, said any new outbreak would be
better controlled compared with the current one, which has been far
more devastating - with shortage of vaccines, medicines, oxygen and
hospital beds - than the smaller first surge in infections last
year.
"It will be more controlled, as cases will be much less because more
vaccinations would have been rolled out and there would be some
degree of natural immunity from the second-wave," said Dr Randeep
Guleria, director at All India Institute Of Medical Sciences (AIIMS).
Graphic - Will India suffer a third wave of COVID-19?:
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So far, India has only fully vaccinated about 5% of its estimated
950 million eligible population, leaving many millions vulnerable to
infections and deaths.
While a majority of healthcare experts predicted the vaccination
drive would pick up significantly this year, they cautioned against
an early removal of restrictions, as some states have done.
When asked if children and those under 18 years would be most at
risk in a potential third wave, nearly two-thirds of experts, or 26
of 40, said yes.
"The reason being they are a completely virgin population in terms
of vaccination because currently there is no vaccine available for
them," said Dr Pradeep Banandur, head of epidemiology department at
National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences (NIMHANS).
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 Experts warn the situation
could become severe.
"If children get infected in large numbers and
we are not prepared, there is nothing you can do
at the last minute," said Dr Devi Shetty, a
cardiologist at Narayana Health and an advisor
to the Karnataka state government on pandemic
response planning. "It will be a
whole different problem as the country has very, very few paediatric
intensive care unit beds, and that is going to be a disaster."
But 14 experts said children were not at risk.
Earlier this week, a senior health ministry official said children
were vulnerable and susceptible to infections but that analysis has
shown a less severe health impact.
Graphic - What will happen to India's vaccination drive?:
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While 25 of 38 respondents said future coronavirus variants would
not make existing vaccines ineffective, in response to a separate
question, 30 of 41 experts said the coronavirus will remain a public
health threat in India for at least a year.
Eleven experts said the threat would remain for under a year, 15
said for under two years, while 13 said over two years and two said
the risks will never go away.
 "COVID-19 is a solvable problem, as obviously it was easy to get a
solvable vaccine. In two years, India likely will develop herd
immunity through vaccine and exposure of the disease," said Robert
Gallo, director of the Institute of Human Virology at the University
of Maryland and international scientific advisor, Global Virus
Network.
(Reporting by Shrutee Sarkar and Swathi Nair; Polling by Vivek
Mishra, Indradip Ghosh and Mumal Rathore; Editing by Rahul Karunakar,
Sanjeev Miglani & Shri Navaratnam)
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