Syrian drought puts Assad's 'year of wheat' in peril
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[June 21, 2021] By
Suleiman Al-Khalidi
AMMAN (Reuters) - The "year of wheat"
campaign pushed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in jeopardy after
low rainfall risked leaving an import gap of at least 1.5 million tonnes,
according to preliminary estimates by officials and experts.
The agricultural blow and lack of funds to finance the imports will add
to pressure on a Syrian economy already reeling from ten years of
conflict and buckling under the pressure of U.S. sanctions, neighbouring
Lebanon's financial collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Russia, one of the world's largest exporters of wheat and Assad's
staunch ally, has said it would sell one million tonnes of grain to
Syria throughout the year to help it meet the four million tonnes of
annual domestic demand.
But its cargoes have been slow to arrive in recent years as funds grew
scarce, with publicly available customs data showing no significant
supplies to Syria.
Officials and an expert at the Rome-based Food and Agriculture
Organisation (FAO) estimated at least 1.5 million tonnes of wheat
imports were needed. They said a 1.2 million-tonne government purchasing
target, driven by forced sales to the government, now looked wildly
unrealistic.
Abdullah Khader, 49, a landowner and farmer in Raqqa province, said the
lack of rain meant his crop was almost a quarter of last year's.
Minister of Agriculture Mohammed Hassan Qatana talked about the fate of
the domestic crop during a tour with his team this week of the country's
bread basket in the northeast Hasaka province, where much of the
country's cereals crop is in the hands of breakaway Kurds.
"It's clear from the tour the huge impact of the climatic changes, that
all rain-fed plantations have been taken out of investments and even the
irrigated wheat areas production has gone down 50%," Qatana said.
According to two U.N. experts, that could mean at least half of the
planted acreage of 1.5 million hectares could be wiped out.
BREAD SHORTAGES
Much of the domestic wheat demand is needed to support a government
bread subsidy programme.
Syria's financial troubles have already translated into bread shortages
in the past year with residents complaining of long queues across
government-controlled areas, in some instances running up to five hours.
The World Food Programme said in March a record 12.4 million Syrians,
more than 60% of the population, suffer from food insecurity and hunger,
double the number seen in 2018.
Syrians are increasingly dependent on subsidised bread as rampant
inflation has driven up food prices more than 200% in the last year,
according to the World Bank.
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Farmer Imad al-Sayyed holds wheat grains in a field in Deir Khabieh,
Damascus suburbs, Syria June 17, 2021. Picture taken June 17, 2021.
REUTERS/Yamam al Shaar
Qatana had appealed to farmers to prioritise wheat this year so the country
could "return to eating what we plant."
"We are facing endless economic pressures, our food means our existence," he
told state media in November.
A rise in last year's harvest had raised expectations, with an increase of 52%
compared to a five-year average, according to FAO data.
"I sowed my 80 donums (8 hectares), hoping it will be a good season," said
Mustafa al-Tahan, 36, a farmer in northern Hama countryside.
"I have lost everything and the yields have been very poor with little rain."
KURDISH SUPPLIES
About 70% of wheat production still lies outside of government control and its
more aggressive position as sole buyer, forcing it to compete with other bidders
by doubling the buying price this season to 900 Syrian pounds a kilo, or around
$300-$320 per tonne.
But Damascus is unlikely to get any supplies from farmers under the Kurdish-led
administration in the northeast, where over 60% of the country's wheat is grown.
The Kurdish-led autonomous administration expects to collect around half last
year's 850,000 tonnes due to poor rains and lower water levels along the
Euphrates banks, which are down by at least five metres.
Along with higher prices to farmers that are denominated in dollars to deter
them from selling to Damascus, the self administration has so far banned any
sale outside its territory.
The 1,150 pounds a kilo purchase price was set substantially higher than the
Damascus level to ensure the northeast administration gets the largest possible
quantity to enable self sufficiency, Kurdish officials say.
"The season is very bad and will affect severely food production," Salman Barudo,
who is in charge of grains procurement in the Kurdish-led autonomous northeast,
said.
The Kurdish-led authorities, who have had extensive trade ties with Damascus,
have so far rejected Russian mediation to allow farmers to sell part of their
produce to Damascus as in previous years, two Kurdish sources said.
($1 = 3,200 Syrian pounds)
(Reporting by Suleiman Al-Khalidi; Editing by Maha El Dahan and Elaine
Hardcastle)
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