Hungary's 2022 budget a 'mistake', needs adjustment - central bank chief
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[June 21, 2021] By
Gergely Szakacs
BUDAPEST (Reuters) - Hungary's parliament
made a "mistake" in passing the 2022 budget, which will generate
inflation and add unnecessary risks to the economy, central bank
Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy said in an article for the daily Magyar
Nemzet's website on Monday.
Matolcsy's strongest criticism of Prime Minister Viktor Orban's budget
for the 2022 election year comes as the central bank heads into a
watershed meeting on Tuesday where it could become the first in the
European Union to raise interest rates as the coronavirus crisis eases.
The NBH is expected to raise its base rate by 25 basis points to 0.85%
in response to rising price pressures, which Matolcsy said would be
amplified by additional demand generated by the 2022 budget and higher
imported inflation.
"The Hungarian economy does not need to be restarted in 2022 with a high
budget deficit," Matolcsy said. "Instead, it is possible and desired to
return to the previous path of balance."
Matolcsy said Hungary should return to a budget deficit near 3% of gross
domestic product as soon as possible, preferably next year, which he
said could be achieved by halving the amount of planned government
investments next year.
Orban has said such a large adjustment would deal too big a shock to the
economy next year and Finance Minister Mihaly Varga has also defended
the budget, exposing one of the biggest rifts in Hungary's top brass in
recent memory.
Parliament passed the 2022 budget this month with a raft of measures
targeting key voting groups ahead of next year's ballot, which will be
Orban's first competitive election since three successive landslides
since taking power in 2010.
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Hungarian Central Bank Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy speaks during a
parliamentary committee hearing in Budapest, Hungary, February 26,
2019. REUTERS/Tamas Kaszas
The measures include scrapping the personal income tax for people younger than
25, rebuilding a 13th month of payment to pensioners and grants for families to
renovate their homes.
Orban is also proposing a $2 billion personal income tax rebate to families
ahead of the vote if economic growth exceeds 5.5% this year. His government is
in talks with banks on the future of a loan repayment moratorium due to expire
this year.
Matolcsy said the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was faster than
expected, boosting inflation risks, which were compounded by the resulting
mismatches between supply and demand.
"The additional demand generated by the 5.9% of GDP budget deficit target fuels
inflation further, which can nudge jumps in inflation onto a sustained higher
inflation path," Matolcsy said.
He said the combination of a high budget deficit, sustained high inflation,
deeply negative real interest rates and the extension of a loan repayment
moratorium in its current form could trigger a "strong financial attack" on
Hungary.
"This could be averted with the targeted overhaul of the moratorium (made
available only to those who need it) as well as transforming next year's
budget," Matolcsy said.
(Reporting by Gergely Szakacs; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Bernadette Baum)
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