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The
vote in the southwestern Baden-Wuerttemberg region poses an
awkward test for Laschet before September's federal election
when he hopes to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is
stepping down after 16 years at the helm.
Baden-Wuerttemberg, home to Germany's car industry, was once
safe CDU turf. But now the CDU risks losing its place as the
Greens' junior ruling partner to an alliance of Greens, Social
Democrats (SPD) and liberal Free Democrats - dubbed a 'traffic
light' coalition after their party colours.
An election will also take place on Sunday in the neighbouring
state of Rhineland-Palatinate, where such a 'traffic light'
coalition already governs.
CDU support has been slipping in both states, and party
officials worry it has been hit further after a CDU lawmaker
from Baden-Wuerttemberg said on Monday he would quit over
payments he received for brokering face mask procurement deals
for local authorities.
CDU leaders fear that if a traffic light alliance ousts them
from government in Baden-Wuerttemberg, then such a tie-up could
gain credibility at September's federal vote - and could leave
the party in opposition at national level.
Sunday's elections will also have ramifications within the
conservative bloc, which runs Germany's federal government in
coalition with the centre-left SPD.
BAVARIAN RIVAL
Laschet took pole position in the race to succeed Merkel by
winning the CDU leadership two months ago, but a loss in
Baden-Wuerttemberg could help his Bavarian rival Markus Soeder
in their contest to be the conservative chancellor candidate.
"If the CDU is hit badly and fails to even enter into government
in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Soeder could get in the door to replace
Merkel as chancellor," said Naz Masraff at Eurasia, a political
risk consultancy.
Soeder, the burly, confident leader of the CDU's Bavarian sister
party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), is the preferred
conservative candidate for chancellor among German voters. He
senses a unique chance to assert himself as a conservative
unifier.
Soeder has said the election in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where the
CDU lead candidate did not back Laschet for party leader, will
have little bearing on the choice of chancellor candidate to
represent the CDU/CSU alliance, dubbed 'the Union'.
Soeder and Laschet want to settle the candidacy matter by May
23. No German chancellor has ever come from the CSU.
Laschet is not taking any chances.
He has sought to dispel lingering concerns in the party that he
could be a weak leader, ripping into his Social Democrat rival
for the chancellery, Olaf Scholz, whom he accused of "arrogance
and ignorance in the middle of the pandemic".
A survey by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for broadcaster ZDF
published on Friday put the Greens in Baden-Wuerttemberg on 35%
support, ahead of the CDU on 24%. In Rhineland-Palatinate, the
Social Democrats led on 33%, ahead of the CDU on 29%.
CDU officials in Baden-Wuerttemberg say privately they would
only stand a chance of winning the state if the Greens' popular
premier, Winfried Kretschmann, who came to power in 2011 after
the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, was not running again.
For the Greens, the prospect of a third term running
Baden-Wuerttemberg is a chance to stake a claim for the
chancellery in September, though they lag the CDU/CSU nationally
in polls.
"The message from an election victory in Baden-Wuerttemberg
would be: We can beat the Union," Green Party national director
Michael Kellner told Reuters.
(Additional reporting by Holger Hansen; Writing by Paul Carrel;
Editing by Gareth Jones)
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