Analysis: Europe's COVID-19 setbacks risk another summer travel washout
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[March 20, 2021] By
Sarah Young and Laurence Frost
LONDON/PARIS (Reuters) - Europe's airlines
and travel sector are bracing for a second lost summer, with rebound
hopes increasingly challenged by a hobbled COVID-19 vaccine rollout,
resurgent infections and new lockdowns. Airline and travel stocks fell
on Friday after Paris and much of northern France shut down for a month,
days after Italy introduced stiff business and movement curbs for most
of the country including Rome and Milan. The setbacks hit recovery
prospects for the crucial peak season, whose profits typically tide
airlines through winter, when most carriers lose money even in good
times.
"If there's no confidence there, demand just doesn't come back," said
Dublin-based Alton Aviation consultant Leah Ryan, who expects the bad
news on vaccines and lockdowns to hurt already weak bookings.
The summer outlook also has been dented by rising infections in Greece
and elsewhere, and a suspension of AstraZeneca's vaccine by a number of
European countries over health fears. Several countries announced
resumption of use of the AstraZeneca shot this week after the European
Medicines Agency said the benefits clearly outweigh its risks.
Airlines that have already racked up billions in debt face further
strain that some may not survive without fresh funds. British Airways
owner IAG raised 1.2 billion euros ($1.43 billion) in a bond issue on
Thursday, saying the cushion would protect it from a drawn-out slump.
A patchy stop-start summer may pose fewer difficulties for low-cost
airlines such as Ryanair and Wizz Air, which can redeploy planes quickly
between routes. But Ryanair's home market expects to keep strict travel
curbs in place at least throughout June, Irish health official Ronan
Glynn said on Thursday, citing the "deteriorating situation
internationally" and emerging more contagious virus variants.
Ryanair shares traded 4.2% lower on Friday, with IAG down 4% and easyJet
and Wizz both down 3.5%. Rebound hopes had driven travel stocks higher
over the past month, led by IAG's 25% gain.
While ultra-low cost carriers can take the pain of another summer
washout, analysts say, rivals such as easyJet and Virgin Atlantic could
face renewed balance-sheet pressures. Air France-KLM is also seeking to
raise capital and reduce debt from last year's 10.4 billion-euro
bailout. The Franco-Dutch airline group aims to fly more than 50% of
pre-crisis capacity this year, compared with 40%-50% for Lufthansa -
targets that could still prove ambitious.
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A woman on Porto Katsiki beach on the island of Lefkada, Greece,
July 25, 2020. REUTERS/Dimitris Rapakousis
"MAJOR HIT" "There's a risk of an increased number of bankruptcies particularly
between now and the end of the year," Alexandre de Juniac, head of global
airline body IATA, told Reuters.
The latest whiplash in recovery sentiment extends from airlines into hospitality
industries and the broader economy, penalizing tourism-dependent Mediterranean
countries. "Virus numbers are going up, the vaccine rollout is falling behind
and there is a risk that Europe could lose a second summer," Morgan Stanley
economist Jacob Nell said, predicting a "major hit to the southern economies".
The weak European outlook contrasts with optimistic messages from U.S. airline
CEOs, who this week reported rising spring and summer leisure bookings across
the country, as the U.S. vaccination campaign gained momentum and coronavirus
restrictions are eased.
United Airlines said it could halt its cash burn this month, excluding debt and
severance payments.
Thanks to its faster progress on vaccinations, the UK outbound market has been
seen as key to the coming European peak season. But rising European infection
rates could threaten those plans too. Greece became Britain's biggest source of
imported cases when the countries opened a travel corridor last summer,
according to an official UK study published this week. Instead, the faster pace
of vaccinations in Britain and the United States could bring a transatlantic
rebound – potentially flipping the conventional wisdom that short-haul will
recover first. "These two countries are leading the G20," with shots
administered to 40% of the population in Britain and one-third in the United
States, UBS aviation analyst Jarrod Castle said."The North Atlantic could open
up between (them) before other European markets, which would be greatly
beneficial for British Airways."
($1 = 0.8398 euros)
(Reporting by Sarah Young and Laurence Frost; Additional reporting by Conor
Humphries in Dublin and Tracy Rucinski in Chicago; Editing by Susan Fenton and
Bill Berkrot)
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