Explainer-Scotland's difficult route to another independence referendum
Send a link to a friend
[May 04, 2021]
By Andrew MacAskill
LONDON (Reuters) - Scottish independence
supporters are calling Thursday's election the most important in the
nation's history as they vow that if they win a majority in the devolved
parliament, they will push for another referendum on breaking from the
United Kingdom.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is close to controlling the devolved
parliament - knows as Holyrood - outright in Thursday's election.
The only time the SNP have won a majority before in 2011, Britain's
then-Prime Minister David Cameron bowed to pressure and agreed to a
referendum in 2014. Scots then voted by 55-45% to remain in the more
than 300-year-old union.
However, even if they win a majority, there are no defined rules for how
Scotland can force another referendum. The British government says the
law means that Scotland would require the permission of the British
parliament, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he will
reject any such demand.
Without a clear democratic path to another referendum, the SNP will need
to exert political, moral, or legal pressure to force another vote.Below
are some of the paths to Scottish independence:
POLITICAL TRENCH WARFARE
If the SNP - along with the Greens, who also support independence - win
a majority, they will claim they have an undeniable right to hold
another referendum. Regardless of the result, Johnson is expected to
turn down any request. He has said the issue was settled seven years ago
and the next one should not be held until the 2050s.
This will result in "political trench warfare" between the Scottish and
British government over who has the power to call a referendum,
according to James Mitchell, a professor of politics at Edinburgh
University.
Mitchell said the independence movement will make angry demands and use
street protests and political stunts to highlight what they say is
Scotland being denied the right to decide its future. "It will be very
heated," he said.
There is broad acceptance among British political leaders that Scotland,
which joined with England in 1707, cannot be trapped forever against its
democratic will.The risk for the British government is by denying a
referendum it may increase support for Scottish independence.
[to top of second column]
|
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon campaigns in Midsteeple
Quarter for the Scottish Parliament election, in Dumfries, Scotland,
Britain May 3, 2021. Jeff J Mitchell/Pool via REUTERS
COURT BATTLES
Scotland's leader Nicola Sturgeon has said that if the SNP wins a
majority and COVID-19 pandemic is over, she will pass legislation to
hold a new referendum by the end of 2023. She will then dare the
British government to challenge the decision in the courts.
Under the Scotland Act 1998 - which set up the Scottish parliament -
"the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England" is a matter
reserved for Britain's parliament.However, the matter has never been
tested in court and lawyers and academics disagree over whether the
Scottish parliament could have the power to call a referendum.David
Hope, former deputy president of the UK Supreme Court, said the
Scotland Act was a major constraint on the Scottish government:
"They are trapped within a statute which is very carefully
drafted."Others think it is not so clear-cut. "There are respectable
arguments for saying that a referendum bill would be within devolved
competence," said Professor Aileen McHarg, an expert on
constitutional law at Durham University.
UNAUTHORISED REFERENDUM
Sturgeon has previously said she would only seek to secede from the
United Kingdom through a legally agreed referendum.
She is facing pressure from some nationalists to abandon this
strategy and to call a referendum without the British parliament's
permission. But unionists could boycott this vote and claim the
result lacks legitimacy.
If the independence movement was to hold a referendum without the
consent of the British government, it could also struggle to gain
international recognition if it won.
That would mirror the situation in Spain over Catalonia four years
ago, when the regional government held an independence referendum
that the central government said was illegal.
Michael Keating, a professor of politics at the University of
Aberdeen, said that if the pro-independence parties keep winning
elections, the British government will eventually have to back down.
The union is based on the principle that any country could leave if
it wants, he said.
"If people keep voting for nationalist parties, how can you tell
them they don't want another referendum?" he said. "You can't keep
saying no forever."
(Reporting by Andrew MacAskill; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and
Angus MacSwan)
[© 2021 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2021 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content. |