Pandemic's labor reshuffle likely just starting for U.S. workers
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[May 11, 2021]
By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - If the coronavirus
pandemic produced its own brand of anxiety for American workers trying
to stay healthy while balancing job and family demands, the coming
return to "normal" will pose a new set of challenges.
Like whether to first try to claw back all the free hours of labor
donated to companies during the crisis, or shift to a "future-proof"
occupation to insure against the next one, or figure out how to compete
with the robots being deployed more widely because of the pandemic.
The workforce fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, in other words, may
have only just begun.
Some industries are recovering faster than others, with the worst-hit
sectors continuing to lag. Even though U.S. gross domestic product is
near its pre-pandemic peak, jobs are rebounding more slowly, suggesting
a potentially prolonged period of adaptation ahead for both workers and
companies. (Graphic: Shifting job demand,
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/JOBS/ygdpzlblqpw/chart.png)
Payroll processor ADP set a baseline of sorts in a recent survey of more
than 32,000 workers globally that showed just how unsettled the
landscape is as the pandemic, at least in the major developed economies,
reaches its endgame.
Over the past year, for example, workers often said they benefited from
the flexibility of working from home and wanted it to continue.
Companies and their employees have both reported improved productivity.
But it turns out some of that "flexibility" was consumed by a
substantial increase in unpaid overtime, according to the ADP survey,
which was conducted last fall. That means the higher productivity may be
something of a mirage, not the outcome of better work-life balance but
value donated to firms by workers worried about staying employed.Workers
globally reported unpaid hours rose about 25%, from 7.2 to 9.3 per week.
In the United States, it more than doubled from 4.1 to 9.
SPREAD OF AUTOMATION
People, and women in particular, "may be returning to a corporate
landscape that expects more hours worked with less compensation," said
Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist. "That's a post-COVID burden,"
which could potentially frustrate hopes to reemploy the roughly 2
million U.S. women still absent from the labor force compared with
February 2020.
More than three-fourths of workers globally said job insecurity had
prompted them to work more during the week or on their days off, and
take on new tasks including ones they were not comfortable performing.
Richardson said those results mean companies and their workers will need
to find a new post-pandemic relationship. Many workers took on new
duties, for example, but often without a raise or extra training, an
outcome particularly true for women.
The ADP survey found 15% of respondents said they were planning to shift
occupations altogether to something more "future-proof," a finding with
implications for how companies and workers match up if large shares of
people in, say, the restaurant sector decide they want to do something
else.
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Autonomous robots assemble an X model SUV at the BMW manufacturing
facility in Greer, South Carolina, U.S. November 4, 2019.
REUTERS/Charles Mostoller/File Photo
The U.S. labor market's weak performance in April -
it added only about a quarter of the jobs that had been expected by
a Reuters poll of economists - may be related at least in part to
people's reluctance to return to jobs they no longer see as
rewarding or worth the health risk.
Defining what future-proof means, however, is challenging as the
pandemic shifts consumer behavior in potentially permanent ways -
the rush to online shopping and a preference for buying goods or
participating largely in "distanced" activities - and automation
spreads deeper into the service sector.
The Association for Advancing Automation last week reported a nearly
20% increase in purchases of industrial robots in the first three
months of 2021 versus 2020, and most went to companies outside the
auto sector where they are already prevalent. Orders by consumer
companies rose 32%.
The pandemic has motivated hotels, restaurants and other
consumer-facing, "high-touch" companies to build social distancing
into their business models, possibly resulting in fewer employees
than before.
In an analysis last week, Bank of America's Ethan Harris and Jeseo
Park argued that over time people will find jobs nevertheless, just
as they have during past technological upheavals.
"While the COVID crisis has likely sped up structural changes in the
labor market, these multi-decade changes are much slower than the
dynamics of the business cycle," wrote Harris, the bank's head of
global economics, and Park, a global and U.S. economist. "Over time
the labor market will re-invent itself as it has done repeatedly
across history."
The interim can still be tough, and a slow adjustment may mean
higher-than-expected unemployment while it plays out.
A recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics study indicated the burden
may fall hardest on the same workers most affected by the pandemic
recession. If the dislocation is deep, the U.S. economy may have 3
million jobs fewer than it would otherwise by 2029, with many of the
losses among waiters, retail clerks and other front-line service
occupations.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)
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