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 Illinois is one of 27 states under extreme threat for partisan
gerrymandering, according to an April report by Represent.Us.
The report by the nonprofit, nonpartisan reform group rated all 50 states on a
“threat” index using a scale of “minimal” to “extreme.” Illinois earned the
rating of “extreme” based on the report’s five different threat factors:
Can politicians control how election maps are drawn?
Can election maps be drawn in secret?
Can election maps be rigged for partisan gain?
Are the legal standards weak?
Are rigged election maps hard to challenge in court?
Illinois received a “high” threat rating across the board for
congressional redistricting, and the same for three out of the five listed
threats for legislative redistricting. Illinois earned good marks, however, for
transparency and high legal standards in its legislative redistricting – citing
the requirement for public hearings and the statutory requirement that the state
draw (1) crossover districts, in which minority populations might be numerous
enough to vote with majority population voters to elect candidates favored by
the minority population; (2) coalition districts, in which racial and language
minorities may act as a coalition to elect their preferred candidates, and (3)
influence districts, in which minority population voters may be numerous enough
to influence the outcome of an election without electing a candidate of their
choice.
Despite those safeguards cited by the report, Illinois was unable to avoid the
highest possible rating on the threat index. Nor should it. Legislative
redistricting is particularly vulnerable because it is the lawmakers themselves
placed in charge of drawing their own districts. Incumbent lawmakers draw
districts that protect themselves from competition.
And given its track record, Illinois’ threat rating should come as no surprise.
The state has a long history of partisan gerrymandering, undertaken by Democrats
and Republicans alike. As in many of Illinois’ dubious legacies, former speaker
of the Illinois House of Representatives Michael Madigan for over three decades
derived much of his power from creating unfair maps that kept lawmakers loyal or
in line.
Even before he was speaker, Madigan took charge of redistricting Illinois after
the 1980 census, allowing Democrats to dominate in the 1982 election even though
population trends favored Republicans. Madigan was elected speaker of the House
the next session.
But the map that won him the office was challenged for racial discrimination and
other issues. In 1982 a panel of federal judges found the redistricting plan
unconstitutionally diluted the votes of Black Illinoisans.
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The Democratic Party under Madigan would go on to
draw Illinois’ legislative districts in 2001 and 2011, drawing lines
to force Republican incumbents into the same districts to face
primaries or abandon reelection. Democrats created districts that
were so uncompetitive that in 2020, 44% of the Illinois House of
Representatives seats were uncontested and 11 of 22 Illinois Senate
candidates faced no opponent, according to the Chicago Tribune.
The single time Republicans drew the districts in 1991 was the only
redistricting period when Democrats lost the House and the only time
since 1983 that Madigan lost his speakership for two years.
While polling reveals the majority of Illinoisans support reforming
the redistricting process, John Hooker, the former Commonwealth
Edison lobbyist charged with attempting to buy Madigan’s influence,
successfully sued to get the Independent Maps initiative off the
ballot through a 4-3 decision in the Illinois Supreme Court in 2016.
Even now that Madigan has stepped down as speaker, it won’t be easy
to prevent the party in power from giving Illinois another map that
favors its candidates. The one person who could stand in the way is
Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who has repeatedly promised to veto any
gerrymandered map.
But with political pressure mounting, Pritzker has already
backpedaled on that promise. Despite his talk of vetoing unfair
maps, he has claimed the last politician-drawn map was in fact a
fair map, and that he trusts the General Assembly to pass a fair map
again. His past statements, and the evidence, belies that claim.
The 2011 map drawn by Democrats forced incumbent Republicans into
the same districts to either face primaries against each other or
abandon re-election. Republicans did the same thing in 1991 when
they drew the maps. And this cycle, Democrats are poised to saddle
the loss of its congressional district on Republicans and gain a
seat of their own, widening their current 13-5 majority to a 14-3
Democrat to Republican majority. This kind of partisan gamesmanship
is exactly the sort of thing that a fair map should avoid, and why
Illinois rated an “extreme” risk rating for gerrymandering.
Pritzker made a promise. He should keep it. Districts should be
drawn based on input from residents, and not for partisan advantage.
Otherwise, Illinois will be stuck with another Madigan map for
another decade.
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