Europe accounts for more than half of the average 7-day infections
globally and about half of latest deaths, according to a Reuters
tally, the highest levels since April last year when the virus first
swept into Italy.
The fresh tumult comes as successful inoculation campaigns have
plateaued ahead of the winter months and flu season.
About 65% of the population of the European Economic Area (EEA) -
which includes the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway
- have received two doses, according to EU data, but the pace has
slowed in recent months.
Take-up in southern European countries is around 80%, but hesitancy
has hampered rollout in central and eastern Europe and Russia,
leading to outbreaks that could overwhelm healthcare.
Germany, France and the Netherlands are also experiencing a surge in
infections, showing the challenge even for governments with high
acceptance rates and dashing hopes vaccines would mean a return to
close to normal.
To be sure, hospitalisations and deaths are much lower than a year
ago and big variations by country in use of vaccines and boosters as
well as measures like social distancing make it hard to draw
conclusions for the whole region.
'DON'T TAKE EYE OFF THE BALL'
But a combination of low vaccine uptake in some parts, waning
immunity among those inoculated early and complacency about masks
and distancing as governments relaxed curbs over the summer are
likely to blame, virologists and public health experts told Reuters.
"If there's one thing to learn from this it's not to take your eye
off the ball," said Lawrence Young, a virologist at the UK's Warwick
Medical School.
The World Health Organization's latest report for the week to Nov. 7
showed that Europe, including Russia, was the only region to record
a rise in cases, up 7%, while other areas reported declines or
stable trends.
Similarly, it reported a 10% increase in deaths, while other regions
reported declines.
The bleak outlook is sending shivers through companies and
governments, anxious that the prolonged pandemic will derail a
fragile economic recovery, particularly as transatlantic flights
resumed this week and borders have started reopening.
In Germany, some cities are reported to have cancelled Christmas
markets again, while the Netherlands could shut theatres and
cinemas, scrap large events and close cafes and restaurants earlier.
Most EU countries are deploying extra shots to the elderly and those
with weakened immune systems, but expanding it to more of the
population and getting shots in teenagers' arms should be a priority
to avoid steps like lockdown, scientists said.
"The real urgency is to widen the pool of vaccinated people as much
as possible," said Carlo Federico Perno, head of microbiology and
immunology diagnostics at Rome's Bambino Gesł Hospital.
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PROTECTING KIDS TOO
The EU's medicines regulator is evaluating the
use of Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine in 5 to
11-year-olds.
The data justifies the steps.
German figures for the week to Oct. 31 show that
while highest case loads are among relatively
young people, those over the age of 60 account
for the majority of hospitalisations.
The rate of hospitalisation for unvaccinated
over-60s is also considerably higher than those
inoculated. Last month, roughly
56% of COVID-19 patients in Dutch hospitals and 70% in intensive
care were unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated.
"This (outbreak) will probably make the EU look at booster doses and
say 'we do need them pronto'," said Michael Head, senior research
fellow in global health at the University of Southampton.
Still struggling to ramp up shots, central and eastern European
governments have had to take drastic action. Facing
its most severe outbreak yet, Latvia, one of the least vaccinated
countries in the EU, imposed a four-week lockdown in mid-October.
Czech Republic, Slovakia and Russia have also tightened
restrictions. The Czech cabinet will consider whether fresh measures
are needed on Friday.
In western Europe, Dutch experts have recommended imposing a partial
lockdown, western Europe's first since the summer.
In Germany, a draft law would allow for measures such as compulsory
face masks and social distancing in public spaces to continue to be
enforced until next March.
It reported a record 50,196 new cases on Thursday, the fourth daily
high in a row.
Some are holding out. Britain is relying on booster shots for the
over 50s to increase immunity, while pressure grows on Prime
Minister Boris Johnson to implement his "Plan B", involving mask
mandates, vaccine passes and work-from-home orders.
Vaccines alone are not the silver bullet to defeat the pandemic in
the long term, virologists say.
Several pointed to Israel as an example of good practice: in
addition to inoculations, it has reinforced mask wearing and
introduced vaccine passports after cases spiked a few months ago.
Measures such as spacing, masks and vaccine mandates for indoor
venues are essential, said Antonella Viola, professor of immunology
at Italy's University of Padua. "If one of these two things is
lacking, we see situations such as we are seeing in many European
countries these days."
(Reporting by Josephine Mason in London and Emilio Parodi in Milan;
Additional reporting by Maria Sheahan in Berlin; Editing by Andrew
Cawthorne)
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