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The
ECB officially expects price growth in the euro zone, which hit
3.4% last month, to ease back below its 2% goal next year, but
many inside the bank fear inflation will prove stickier.
De Guindos repeated the ECB's projections but cautioned that
some of the drivers of the recent inflation spike, such as
supply bottlenecks and higher energy costs, were having a
"structural" impact and might affect workers' perceptions and
wage demands.
"This inflation increase is not only responding to base effects
but there is also a component that is going to have a more
structural impact," de Guindos told a Spanish event.
"This is having an impact that goes beyond what we were
expecting only a few months ago."
He added the ECB's monetary policy response would have to change
if inflation became permanent as a result of these factors
lasting longer than expected or because they were starting to
have an impact on wage negotiations.
"In the labour market we haven't seen sizeable salary increases
for the time being," de Guindos said.
"But we have to be careful and cautious because salary
negotiations are only starting and the perception of inflation
becomes more evident as time goes by."
Sources told Reuters last month that several ECB policymakers
were bracing for inflation to exceed the bank's already raised
estimates of 2.2% for this year, 1.7% for the next and 1.5% for
2023.
This was seen paving the way for the bank to end its emergency
bond purchases in March, the sources added. A decision is
scheduled for December.
De Guindos said if economic activity normalised and the pandemic
receded the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme would
"have accomplished its mission".
(Reporting By Francesco Canepa; Editing by Toby Chopra and Alex
Richardson)
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