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The investment bank, in a note dated Sept. 9,
described the hit to U.S. output as "historically large" and
expects almost 40 million barrels of crude production to be
lost, with challenges restarting the Mars stream likely until
mid-October.
U.S. refiners are coming back faster than oil production, a
reverse of past storm recoveries with just three of the nine
refineries completely idled, accounting for about 7% of Gulf
Coast refining, compared to shut-ins of two-thirds of oil output
on Friday.
The impact on refining has been broadly in line with prior
hurricanes, the bank said, with about 1.5 million barrels per
day still offline and the recovery likely to "follow the usual
exponential pattern of the disruptions halving every 10 days."
Concerns over the output shut-in due to Ida, helped drive oil
prices above $70 a barrel, with Brent crude trading at $73.39,
and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $70.19 by 0829
GMT.
Goldman expects a peak demand impact only about 450,000 barrels
per day from the hurricane, largely due to disruptions to
downstream petrochemical plants in the Gulf of Mexico which
account for a large share of petrochemical capacity.
"On net, we believe the storm will have left the U.S. short of
around 30 million barrels of total oil, almost entirely in
products due to the impact on refinery runs versus demand," it
added.
"While there is pessimism on the oil demand recovery due to the
storm, reducing COVID infections, particularly in the U.S.,
could offset the fall in the coming weeks, with both higher U.S.
margins and a tightening WTI-Brent differential."
(Reporting by Seher Dareen and Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; editing
by David Evans)
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