Californians to decide governor's fate in Republican-backed recall
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[September 14, 2021]
By Sharon Bernstein
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (Reuters) - California
voters will decide on Tuesday whether to recall Governor Gavin Newsom in
a special election that has pitted the state's majority Democrats
against Republican supporters of former President Donald Trump.
Newsom, a first-term governor and former San Francisco mayor, is
fighting for his political future in only the second recall election for
governor in state history despite 55 attempts.
The campaign to oust the Democratic governor began with a conservative
Republican group and gained steam during the pandemic. Conservatives,
angered by Newsom's liberal policies on LGBTQ rights, immigration and
crime, also became infuriated by his decision to close schools and
require masks and vaccinations against COVID-19.
The removal of Newsom, a popular figure in one of the most progressive
U.S. states, would likely embolden Republicans and set off alarms among
Democrats, coming just over a year before the 2022 elections that will
decide control of Congress.
Recall also could mean the end of Newsom's political ambitions, widely
believed to include possible runs for the U.S. Senate or the presidency.
The latest public opinion polls
showed Newsom with strong support. In a
survey released on Friday https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1g8696rv by
the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California,
Berkeley, 60.1% of likely voters said they favored retaining the
governor and 38.5% opposed him staying in office.
Democrats have returned twice as many ballots as Republicans so far in a
four-week early voting period, state data showed. About 38% of voters
have already submitted their ballots.
That is a dramatic turnaround from earlier this summer, when polls
showed so few Democrats were planning to vote that Newsom's job was in
jeopardy in a state where Republicans make up less than a quarter of the
electorate.
The polls "changed Democrats' mindset from sitting back on the couch to
saying, 'This is something we’ve got to do,'" said Paul Mitchell, whose
firm Political Data Intelligence analyzed state ballot return
information.
If more than 50% of voters agree Newsom should be recalled, their
answers to a second ballot question will decide who becomes the state's
next governor.
Republican radio host and Trump supporter Larry Elder leads the slate of
46 candidates vying to replace Newsom. Elder has vowed to remove
requirements for vaccines and mask-wearing.
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California Governor Gavin Newsom, who faces a September 14 recall
election, speaks during a campaign event at Long Beach City College
Liberal Arts Campus in Long Beach, California, U.S., September 13,
2021. REUTERS/Leah Millis
In the Berkeley poll, he was supported by about 38%
of those likely to vote on a replacement. Kevin Paffrath, a Democrat
and YouTube host, received 10% support, followed by former
Republican San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer at 8%.
Former gubernatorial nominee John Cox and Republican reality TV star
Caitlyn Jenner also are on the ballot.
TURNOUT BEING WATCHED
Results from the recall may not be immediately known. Mail-in
ballots can be postmarked as late as Tuesday.
Many Republicans are expected to vote in person on Tuesday, fueled
by Trump's false claims that Democrats stole the 2020 presidential
election with fraudulent mail-in voting. For days leading up to
California's recall election, Trump said it also would be "rigged"
against Republicans.
Elder made such claims as well. He told reporters in Los Angeles
last week, "There may well be shenanigans," according to CNN and
other media.
Mitchell said Republicans would need overwhelming turnout for
in-person voting on Tuesday, and Democratic participation would need
to slow way down, for Newsom to be recalled.
If Newsom wins, he will enter next year's re-election campaign in a
particularly strong position, with the most likely Republican
opposition weakened from the recall race, said California State
University political scientist Raphael Sonenshein.
Newsom has ramped up his outreach to Democrats in recent weeks,
tying the recall effort to Trump and saying Elder would impose
conservative policies on abortion, immigration, gun rights and other
issues.
(Reporting by Sharon Bernstein; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and
Cynthia Osterman)
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