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shortage of semiconductors is just part of the problem,
Alixpartners said in a new forecast. High prices and tight
supplies of commodities such as steel and plastic resin are
driving up costs and forcing automakers to curtail production.
Automakers are on track to lose production of 7.7 million
vehicles in 2021, according to the new forecast. Alixpartners
advises automakers on supply chain and other issues.
In May, the firm predicted automakers would lose $110 billion in
revenue and fall 3.9 million vehicles short of production plans
for the year.
The dour new forecast comes amid warnings from automakers and
commercial truck manufacturers that semiconductor shortages and
commodity price spikes are not easing as 2021 heads into its
final months, as industry executives had hoped they would.
Last week, IHS Markit slashed its global auto industry
production outlook for 2021 and 2022.
In the U.S. market, vehicle sales have begun to slow because
inventories on dealer lots are around 20 days' supply, less than
half the normal levels, said Dan Hearsch, a managing director in
Alixpartners auto practice.
"We had originally assumed we would get back to normal and claw
back volume" in the fourth quarter, Hearsch told Reuters. "That
is not going to happen."
Instead, automakers could have tight inventories until late 2022
or early 2023, he said.
Supplies of semiconductors have been hit in the past few months
by a COVID surge in Malaysia
https://www.reuters.com/technology/
malaysian-chip-makers-still-struggling-meet-demand-association-says-2021-08-26,
which has hobbled production at important suppliers.
Backlogs at major U.S. ports are hampering efforts by auto
manufacturers to import more plastic resins and steel, he said.
In response, automakers are committing to longer contracts to
lock in supplies, buying as much as 40 to 50 weeks in advance,
Hearsch said.
"They are signing up for things they would never have done a
year ago," he said.
(Reporting By Joe White; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)
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