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The
tweak could come at the central bank's policy meeting this
month, Muguruma wrote in a research note, having initially
expected the tweak to be made in July.
The projection by Muguruma, a prominent BOJ watcher who has
closely tracked its policy for years, comes despite reassurances
by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda that the BOJ is in no rush to follow
in the footsteps of other central banks in withdrawing stimulus.
Under the current guidance, the BOJ says it "won't hesitate to
take additional easing steps," and expects short- and long-term
policy interest rates to "remain at their present or lower
levels."
The central bank will likely change the guidance to say it will
"maintain short- and long-term rates at current levels for the
time being," Muguruma said.
The tweak could help slow the pace of yen declines by making the
BOJ's policy outlook appear somewhat less dovish than before,
she said.
"With the yen sliding to 20-year lows against the dollar,
there's no need to stick to a guidance that eyes a possible
deepening of negative interest rates," Muguruma said.
Under a policy dubbed yield curve control, the BOJ pledges to
guide short-term rates at -0.1% and cap the 10-year bond yield
around 0% to support growth through low borrowing costs.
With inflation still subdued and the economy weak, the BOJ has
repeatedly said it will keep monetary policy ultra-low. The
Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike plans has widened the
interest rate differential, pushing the yen to a two-decade low
against the dollar.
The BOJ next meets for a policy meeting on April 27-28.
(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
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