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Russia accounts for around 40% of European gas supply, but the
West has been trying to wean itself off Russian energy flows
with increasing urgency since the country began what it calls
its "special military operation" in Ukraine on Feb. 24.
Plans to charge "unfriendly" countries for gas sales in roubles
have also undermined prospects for Russian gas exports, analysts
said, as Europe said this amounted to "blackmail" and almost
unanimously refused to comply.
Sergei Kapitonov from the Energy Centre at Moscow's Skolkovo
School of Management said Gazprom supplies to Europe may fall by
40 billion-45 billion cubic metres (bcm) this year from around
150 bcm in 2021.
Sindre Knutsson, head of gas market research at Rystad Energy,
said pipeline volumes can drop even further, "driven by a push
from buyers to become less reliant on Russia, or by Russia
holding back volumes, for example driven by a disagreement on
which currency the gas should be paid in".
He also didn't rule out a stoppage in flows through Ukraine if
the conflict prevents pipeline operations from continuing
safely.
Gazprom has not disclosed its expectations for gas exports to
Europe. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
Top consumers of Gazprom's gas in Europe in 2021 were Germany,
which took 45.8 bcm, Italy, taking 20.8 bcm, and Austria, which
received 13.2 bcm.
Russia is Germany's top supplier, delivering just under a third
of its gas, while Italy gets some 40% of its imported gas, and
Austria 80% of its natural gas, from the country.
So far, only Hungary has agreed to move to the gas-for-roubles
scheme, which involves buyers making foreign currency payments
through Russia's Gazprombank, which would subsequently convert
it into roubles.
An internal European Commission note said last week that payment
for Russian gas in roubles by European Union buyers would break
the EU's sanctions regime against Moscow.
Alexei Gromov of the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation
said Russian pipeline gas could be partially supplanted by
sea-borne liquefied natural gas from the United States and from
Russia's Novatek, which does not have to charge clients in
roubles.
Gromov said Russian pipeline gas exports to the European Union
may reach some 105 bcm this year.
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Jan Harvey)
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