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 Since the last redistricting cycle after the 2010
census, many states have implemented redistricting reforms that are only now
being used in the 2020 remap cycle, to varying results. Illinois should look to
these states’ experience when considering how to structure its own redistricting
processes.
Illinois currently puts legislators in charge of drawing their own districts,
with the predictable result that it allows them to choose the voters they want
instead of voters choosing the representatives they want.
Other states are experimenting with ways to take redistricting out of the hands
of the legislators who stand to benefit from gerrymandered districts. For
example, some states have given redistricting commissions primary responsibility
for drawing legislative and congressional districts, while others have put
commissions in an advisory role, opting to maintain power in the legislature.
Some states have kept legislators at the center of the process but mandated
bipartisanship in selecting a redistricting plan. Others have barred political
leaders from the process entirely. Some have given legislative leaders a say in
appointing a redistricting commission while preventing legislators themselves
from serving on them. Results have varied, but the states best ranked for
competitiveness and partisan fairness in their final district maps are generally
those which do the most to separate the process from legislators and political
leaders.
But any of the reforms would do a better job combating gerrymandering than the
system Illinois currently uses.
Illinois’ gerrymandered maps
Despite efforts from citizens and activist organizations, Illinois has kept the
same redistricting practice in place since the current Illinois Constitution was
adopted in 1970. And after examining the results, it is clear the state’s
redistricting plans, both legislative and congressional, have seen extensive
gerrymandering. For example, Illinois lost a congressional district as a result
of the shift of population recorded in the 2020 census. Even so, Democrats
gained one favorable district while Republicans lost two districts. The state’s
two competitive districts from the past cycle have diminished to only one
competitive district in the state under the current map.
The Princeton Gerrymandering Project has issued report cards for many of the
state maps across the country. These report cards grade maps based on partisan
advantage, competitiveness, and geographic integrity, or measures of compactness
and whether the districts unnecessarily split county units. Illinois’
congressional map received an “F” in all three categories. The state Senate map,
while still receiving an overall failing grade, performed marginally better,
receiving a “C” in competitiveness. The final House map performed much better,
according to the project’s measures, receiving top grades in partisan fairness
while still lagging in competitiveness and geographic features. That earned the
House maps an overall grade of “B.”
Boiling down such a complex subject as the quality of district maps is certainly
more of an art than a science, and any such rankings will have their own
idiosyncrasies. They do demonstrate an underlying truth: allowing Illinois
politicians to control the process gives voters less power in the voting booth.
From 2012-2020, nearly half of Illinois House races went uncontested. In 2020,
the same was true of the Illinois Senate races. Since the adoption of the
current state constitution in 1970, the control of the redistricting process has
strongly correlated with party control of the General Assembly. For instance,
the one time Republicans controlled the redistricting cycle in 1990 was the only
time in the past 40 years Republicans were able to win both chambers of the
General Assembly.
Illinois’ system for state legislative districts in particular discourages
compromise because of the possibility of a winner-take-all result in the backup
commission that draws the map when there is legislative deadlock. Other states,
especially those that have turned to independent redistricting commissions,
appear to have fared better in both partisan fairness and competition. Illinois
can and should learn from where they have gone right and where they have gone
wrong.
Evaluating redistricting reforms
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 15 states have
implemented redistricting commissions to draw their 2020 legislative districts
and five more require advisory commissions to draft legislative plans while
giving state legislatures the final say. Ten states have done the same for
congressional districts, while four require advisory commissions to draft
congressional district plans while the legislature has the last word on the
final redistricting plans. Ohio requires significant bipartisan support or else
the plan is sent to a bipartisan redistricting commission, and if that plan does
not receive bipartisan support, it only lasts for two election cycles instead of
the entire 10-year period.
Of the six states that have implemented congressional redistricting reform in
the past census cycle, five states have seen an increase in the number of
competitive congressional districts, as measured by theFiveThirtyEight
redistricting tracker. Those states are Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio and
New York.
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Three of the four states that received overall “A’s” for their congressional
district maps by the Princeton Gerrymandering Project – Arizona, Colorado and
Michigan – put redistricting commissions in charge of their processes. Four of
the seven states to grade a “B” or higher overall for legislative maps from both
chambers, Michigan, New Mexico, Utah and Virginia, were states that required
maps to be drawn by bipartisan or independent redistricting commissions in at
least an advisory capacity. Of the eight states with maps that received a
failing overall grade by the project, only two had any sort of redistricting
commission attached to the plan: New York in which the commission only had an
advisory capacity, and Ohio, where commissioners are appointed by elected
officials, including in part by legislative leaders.
New York
Even in this case, New York’s advisory commission may yet prevent politician
gerrymandering in the state, though not without litigation. In New York, an
independent commission is required to present a map to the legislature. If the
legislature rejects the plan, the commission must present a second plan for the
legislature to approve. If the legislature rejects that plan, they may amend the
plan within the limits of federal law and the state and federal constitutions.
When the commission, made up of equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, was
unable to agree on a plan, the legislature took over and passed plans of their
own that heavily favored the majority Democratic Party. One of these maps was
the congressional plan that received a failing grade from the Princeton
Gerrymandering Project.
This map was challenged in court, and because the legislature did not follow the
procedure spelled out in the state constitution, both the congressional and
legislative maps were thrown out as unconstitutional by the state’s highest
court. The decision instructed the lower court to adopt constitutional maps.
Ohio
A similar scenario played out in Ohio. Republicans on the redistricting
commission drew maps that heavily favored their own party at the expense of
Democratic voters. The maps would only be valid for four years because the
commission was unable to get the bipartisan support required for a full, 10-year
map. Even then, an Ohio Supreme Court decision struck these maps down because
they gamed the methodology by calculating statewide voter preference in favor of
Republicans and because they outsourced the map drawing to the legislative
caucuses instead of to the commission as a whole. This litigation illustrates
the importance of constitutionally required redistricting criteria as a backstop
to a commission process, but also the weakness of commissions that give
lawmakers influence in drawing their districts.
Michigan
By contrast, Michigan selects a redistricting commission randomly from a pool of
Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated members of the public who cannot be
elected officials, candidates for office, lobbyists, employees of the
legislatures, officers of a political party or closely related to any of the
same. The result is for the 2020 cycle Michigan received some of the highest
grades for each of its maps from the Princeton Gerrymandering Project,
particularly in the category of partisan fairness. Its congressional map has
three competitive districts out of 13, which is the highest proportion of
competitive districts for a state with five or more congressional districts as
determined by FiveThirtyEight. Michigan was also one of the few states to gain a
competitive district during the past redistricting cycle, no doubt in part
because of Michigan’s redistricting reform.
Conclusion
The reforms that appear to have had the most initial success in introducing the
most competition in state legislative and congressional races are the reforms
that distance the legislature, and in fact all politicians, from the
redistricting process. Illinois should look to these states’ experiences in
reforming its own redistricting process.
Illinois should especially look at Michigan. Michigan’s independent
redistricting commission has produced one of the most competitive maps in the
country by randomly selecting commissioners from a pool of members of the major
parties as well as independents. By further barring politicians from serving on
the commission as well as their employees, lobbyists or other closely related
individuals, the commission can minimize the incentive to gerrymander for
partisan advantage.
A popular proposal to put an independent redistricting commission, such as
Michigan’s, in charge of drawing Illinois district lines gained enough
signatures through a citizen initiative to be placed on the ballot in 2016. That
ballot question was rejected by the Illinois Supreme Court as unconstitutional
after a lawsuit was filed by a Com-Ed lobbyist with ties to former House Speaker
Mike Madigan. The court ruled on a single narrow issue regarding the amendment,
leaving open the potential for a similar proposal.
But the only sure way to implement redistricting reform is for the General
Assembly to pass the amendment. Until that happens, gerrymandering will continue
to be part of Illinois’ culture of corruption.
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