Stocks rise, U.S. bond yields ease ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech
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[August 26, 2022] By
David Randall and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Upbeat economic data
in Germany and gains in U.S. mega-cap growth stocks helped lift an index
of global stock markets on Thursday, while U.S. Treasury yields slipped
as investors waited for the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting for
insights into the central bank's plans to combat inflation.
The Federal Reserve's annual monetary policy conference begins on Friday
in Wyoming, with the focus on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell might say
when he speaks at the conference at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) on Friday.
Investors will be looking for clues on how much higher U.S. interest
rates might need to go and for how long, if inflation does not
significantly fall from its current 40-year highs.
"We're in a period of time between the end of the second-quarter
earnings season and meaningful additional data from the Federal Reserve.
Markets are churning a bit with a reasonably low level of volatility,"
said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth
Management in Minneapolis.
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GDP data from Germany, Europe's largest economy, showed the country
narrowly avoided a contraction in the second quarter and
better-than-feared confidence data helped keep investors' appetite firm,
briefly lifting the battered euro back above dollar parity.
The euro fell back under $1 by the time details from last month's
European Central Bank meeting - when the bank hiked rates by 50 basis
points (bps) - showed concerns among policymakers that inflation is
becoming entrenched.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 1.26%, helped by gains on
Wall Street.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 322.55 points, or 0.98%, to finish
at 33,291.78, the S&P 500 gained 58.35 points, or 1.41%, to close at
4,199.12 and the Nasdaq Composite added 207.74 points, or 1.67%, to end
the session at 12,639.27.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed the session up 0.30%.
U.S. Treasury yields slid on Thursday after hitting multi-week highs the
previous session, as investors balanced positions amid uncertainty ahead
of Powell's speech.
"The bond market has already done a lot of the heavy lifting for
continued messaging of a 75 basis-point hike in September," said Rich
Steinberg, chief market strategist at the Colony Group in Boca Raton,
Florida.
"I think the political risk for the Fed of not doing 75 is just too
great, because if they slow it down in September and then the data show
inflation is still too persistent, it will be hard to message to the
markets to go back to be more restrictive," he added.
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![](../images/082622PIX/busine63.jpg)
Traders work on the trading floor at the
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S.,
August 8, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
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The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was down 6.7 bps at 3.037%.
JACKSON HOLE
Investors have pared back expectations the Fed could tilt to a slower pace of
rate hikes as U.S. inflation remains at 8.5% on an annual basis, well above the
Fed's 2% target. But Powell's speech due on Friday will be scrutinized for any
indication that an economic slowdown might alter the Fed’s strategy.
Investors now expect the Fed Funds rate to peak at 3.80% in March 2023, up from
3.62% a fortnight ago, said Tapas Strickland, NAB's economics director.
Interest rate futures imply a 60% chance of a 75 bp Fed hike in September, up
from 50% earlier this week. Euro zone money markets are now pricing in around
100 bps of ECB rate hikes by October, including a slight chance of 75 bps move
next month.
In currency markets, the dollar slipped 0.2% against a basket of currencies,
while the euro was 0.05% higher at $0.9974, just below parity with the U.S.
currency.
Oil prices fell on Thursday in volatile trade as investors braced for the
possible return to global markets of sanctioned Iranian oil exports and on
worries that rising U.S. interest rates would weaken fuel demand.
Brent crude settled at $99.34 a barrel, shedding $1.88, or 1.9%. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude settled at $92.52 a barrel, losing $2.37, or 2.5%.
Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said the worry was that the energy situation
in Europe keeps getting worse.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2022/Aug/26/images/ads/current/prescott_angus_sda_FAIR_2022.png)
"That’s adding to fears that 'peak inflation' might not actually have arrived
yet for some countries," he said. "Policymakers are about to face some
unenviable choices as they grapple with the worst stagflation we’ve seen in
decades."
(Reporting by David Randall and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York; Additional
reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Devik Jain and Chavi Mehta in Bengaluru and
by Noel Randewich in Oakland, Calif.; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Matthew
Lewis)
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