U.S. monkeypox cases may be peaking, experts say
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[August 26, 2022]
By Julie Steenhuysen
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Monkeypox cases in some
large U.S. cities appear to be declining, matching trends seen in
Europe, and experts are cautiously optimistic the outbreak may have
peaked in places hit hardest hit by the virus.
The World Health Organization earlier on Thursday said monkeypox cases
reported globally declined 21% last week, after a month-long trend of
rising infections, but noted that U.S. cases continued to rise.
Nevertheless, some U.S. experts believe cases are starting to decline
based largely on immunity from prior infection and behavior changes as
awareness of the disease has grown. That does not mean the disease will
be contained, they cautioned.
Since late May, the United States has recorded nearly 17,000 monkeypox
cases. The outbreak, which so far has reached 80 countries outside of
Africa, where the virus is endemic, is largely being transmitted among
gay and bisexual men.
Monkeypox, which is spread through close contact with an infected
individual and the pus-filled sores common to the disease, is rarely
fatal.
Rollout of Bavarian Nordic's Jynneos vaccine has been slow because of
low supplies of the shot, which is also approved to prevent smallpox.
But heightened awareness of the risks and increased immunity appear to
be slowing the spread.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2022/Aug/26/images/ads/current/lincolnag_sda_FAIR_2022.png)
"It's very likely that the epidemic peaked as of last week," said Dr.
Gerardo Chowell, an infectious disease modeler at Georgia State
University School of Public Health.
Chowell's latest model, released on Thursday, forecasts a continued
slowdown in new infections in the United States over the next four
weeks. The declines may not be enough to extinguish the outbreak, but
should bring infections to "very low levels,” he said.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) did not
respond to requests for comment about the apparent trend.
Dr. Celine Gounder, an infectious disease epidemiologist and an
editor-at-large at Kaiser Health News, said she believes behavior change
is driving down monkeypox transmission, but cautioned that "people get
fatigued by behavior change" and transmission may go up again.
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![](../images/082622PIX/health23.jpg)
Test tubes labelled "Monkeypox virus
positive" are seen in this illustration taken May 23, 2022.
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2022/Aug/26/images/ads/current/kleinschimney_lda_FAIR_2022.png) "I suspect behavior change will
stick only until folks get two doses of the Jynneos vaccine," she
said.
For the moment, cases appear to be dropping in some large U.S.
cities hardest hit by the outbreak.
New York City's health commissioner, Dr. Ashwin Vasan, in a tweet on
Thursday acknowledged the declining cases. "We are cautiously
optimistic about this data, but will be closely following to ensure
it is a sustained trend."
Likewise, data tracking monkeypox infections in San Francisco and
Chicago show cases starting to drop over the past few weeks.
Chicago Department of Public Health spokesman James Scalzitti said
the city may be turning a corner but that more data is needed to
confirm a downward trend.
There are other signs as well. According to data on the CDC's
website, the percentage of positive tests in public health and some
commercial labs - an indicator of transmission rates - has fallen
sharply, from 55% positive on July 16 to 24% on Wednesday.
"I think there likely has been some bending of the curve," said Dr.
Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health
Security.
He too attributes the change to a combination of increased immunity,
particularly among high-risk individuals who got infected early in
the outbreak, behavior changes and increased awareness.
Howard Brown Health, a system of 10 federally-funded clinics in
Chicago that has treated a third of Illinois' monkeypox cases, has
seen decreases in both the number of cases and percentage of
positive tests.
"I think that reflects a true decrease in incidence," said Laura
Rusie, Howard Brown's director of epidemiology. "It's hard to say
it's going to stick, but it's promising."
(Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen; Editing by Caroline Humer and Bill
Berkrot)
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