"I
believe by the end of next year you will see much lower
inflation if there's not ... an unanticipated shock," she told
CBS' '60 Minutes' in an interview released Sunday.
Asked about the likelihood of recession, the former Federal
Reserve chair said, "There's a risk of a recession. But ... it
certainly isn't, in my view, something that is necessary to
bring inflation down."
Yellen's comment came days before the Fed is expected to slow
the aggressive pace of interest rate increases it has pursued
this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has telegraphed a smaller,
half-of-a-percentage point increase in the policy rate, to a
range of 4.25%-4.5%, after four 75-basis point hikes this year.
Yellen told CBS that economic growth was slowing substantially,
inflation was easing and she remained hopeful that the labor
market would remain healthy.
She said she hoped the spike in inflation seen this year would
be short-lived, and said the U.S. government had learned "a
lotta lessons" about the need to curtail inflation after high
prices seen in the 1970s.
Shipping costs had come down and long delivery lags had eased,
while gasoline prices at the pump were "way down."
"I think we'll see a substantial reduction in inflation in the
year ahead," she said.
(Reporting by Costas Pitas and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Daniel
Wallis and Kenneth Maxwell)
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