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The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
provided an update on the 2023 forecast to the Illinois State
Board of Education Wednesday and said it is increasing its
fiscal year 2023 revenue outlook to just over $51 billion. That
is only $259 million above fiscal 2022 final levels.
They cited strong gains in revenues for the first third of the
fiscal year necessitating an increase in the fiscal 2023 revenue
outlook. However, a conservative outlook for the remaining
two-thirds of fiscal 2023 will be assumed at this time because
of several factors, including COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and
high gas prices, which affects consumer spending.
Revenue manager Ed Noggle said it also appears consumer
sentiment is changing.
“We are starting to see the returning trend and shift from
taxable goods to non-taxable service goods,” Noggle said. "This
could be a problem for sales tax revenues going forward, and
again there is no federal stimulus expected for the next couple
years that has helped boost spending like in the past.”
Noggle said the key will be the rate of inflation going forward.
“If inflation gets to the point where it starts to reduce sales,
and people cannot buy as many things as they used to do, this
could eventually lead to job losses, and if there are job
losses, that could lead to recession,” Noggle said.
One of the econometric firms the commission utilizes is IHS
Markit. Commission Chief Economist Ben Varner said in one of
their worst-case scenarios, a lot of people are going to be out
of work.
“They basically have Illinois going into a recession as their
baseline and the unemployment rate going up to 6.2% by the end
of next year,” Varner said. “It is what it is but I think that
might be a little dour for my taste.”
Kevin Bessler reports on statewide issues in
Illinois for the Center Square. He has over 30 years of
experience in radio news reporting throughout the Midwest.
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