But recently, public health experts say that while boosting immunity
globally remains essential, the figure is neither achievable nor
meaningful.
It has always been ambitious: Currently, just 12% of people in
low-income nations have had one shot, according to Our World In
Data. Earlier targets set by WHO – to reach 10% by September 2021,
for example – were also missed.
WHO head of immunization Kate O'Brien said 70% remained more than
just a "rallying cry", even though some well-equipped countries with
plenty of vaccines have also struggled to reach it.
"We are calling for countries to be serious about their actions
towards achieving that target, while acknowledging that - on a
country-by-country basis - there may be a rationale why that target
is not specifically suited to that country," she told Reuters.
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance - WHO's partner in the COVAX initiative
aimed at getting shots to the world's poorest – has pulled back from
the "one-size-fits-all" 70% focus.
At a virtual briefing last week with WHO Africa, Aurelia Nguyen,
managing director of COVAX within Gavi, said it was important to
instead "meet the targets that countries have set for themselves,
whether it's in line with the 70% WHO target or a lower or a higher
target."
Reservations about the 70% target are a further sign that ending the
pandemic globally may be a trickier, and longer, challenge than many
had hoped.
Documents from a high-level internal UN meeting held earlier this
month, reviewed by Reuters, showed eight countries that were
extremely unlikely to reach the target by June 2022, and had been
identified for "immediate focus": Afghanistan, the Democratic
Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and
Sudan.
A further 26, including Yemen, Uganda and Haiti, are also in need of
"concerted support", the document said.
NEVER JUST A MAGIC NUMBER
However, there is a bigger issue the WHO is focusing on O'Brien
said.
[to top of second column] |
"The question in the here and now, with Omicron
ripping through the population around the world
and continuing to do that … does 70% still
hold?" she said.
The figure was never a "magic number", she said,
but just an assessment of risk, something to aim
for that could – optimistically – keep the virus
under control.
But new evidence showing that the vaccines only
have a limited impact on transmission, alongside the ability of the
Omicron variant to infect previously vaccinated or infected people,
suggests that achieving that level of population immunity and
therefore stopping the spread of the virus is a fading hope.
"We are in the process of looking at scenarios of how the pandemic
might play out", O'Brien said. "Obviously across the scenarios, the
role of the vaccines, the target of the 70%, the goal of
transmission reduction, would have to be evaluated."
For example, setting higher targets among at-risk groups may be
important to prevent hospitalisations and deaths, she added.
But some public health experts said the initial target was now
largely symbolic.
Edward Kelley, former director of health services at WHO and now
global health officer at ApiJect, said the 70% had been based on
what science said was needed to manage transmission, which had been
blown out of the water by Omicron.
"Of course we need to continue to raise immunity levels everywhere",
he said. "But the target is being kept at the moment because the
international community does not have anything else to cling to."
(Reporting by Jennifer Rigby; Additional reporting by Francesco
Guarascio, Alexander Winning and Estelle Shirbon; Editing by
Josephine Mason and Aurora Ellis)
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