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Shell is one of the largest global investors in China's energy
sector, with business covering gas production, petrochemicals
and a retail fuel network. A leading supplier of liquefied
natural gas, it has recently expanded into low-carbon business
such as hydrogen power and electric vehicle charging.
In a rare assessment of the country's energy sector by an
international oil major, Shell said China needed to take quick
action this decade to stay on track to reach the
carbon-neutrality goal.
China has mapped out plans to reach peak emissions by 2030, but
has not yet revealed any detailed carbon roadmap for 2060.
This includes investing in a reliable and renewable power system
and demonstrating technologies that transform heavy industry
using hydrogen, biofuel and carbon capture and utilisation.
"With early and systematic action, China can deliver better
environmental and social outcomes for its citizens while being a
force for good in the global fight against climate change,"
Mallika Ishwaran, chief economist of Shell International, told a
webinar hosted by the company's China business.
Shell expects China's electricity generation to rise three-fold
to more than 60EJ in 2060 from 20EJ in 2020.
Solar and wind power are expected to surpass coal as the largest
sources of electricity by 2034 in China versus the current 10%,
rising to 80% by 2060, Shell said.
Hydrogen is expected to scale up to 17 exajoules (EJ), or
equivalent to 580 million tonnes of coal by 2060, up from almost
negligible currently, adding over 85% of the hydrogen will be
produced through electrolysis powered by renewable and nuclear
electricity, Shell said.
Hydrogen will meet 16% of total energy use in 2060 with heavy
industry and long-distance transport as top hydrogen users, the
firm added.
The firm also expects China's carbon price to rise to 1,300 yuan
($204.82) per tonne in 2060 from 300 yuan in 2030.
Nuclear and biomass will have niche but important roles for
power generation in the years to come, Shell said.
Electricity generated from biomass, combined with carbon,
capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), provide a source of
negative emissions for the rest of the energy system from 2053,
it added.
($1 = 6.3470 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Aizhu Chen and Shivani Singh)
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