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 Lockdowns, mask-wearing and social distancing that have become the
norm in Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic knocked out flu last
winter, temporarily eradicating a virus that globally kills about
650,000 a year, according to EU figures.
But that has now changed as countries adopt less strict measures to
fight COVID-19 due to widespread vaccination.
Since mid-December, flu viruses have been circulating in Europe at a
higher-than-expected rate, the European Centre for Disease
prevention and Control (ECDC) reported this month.
In December, the number of flu cases in European intensive care
units (ICU) rose steadily to peak at 43 in the last week of the
year, ECDC and World Health Organization data show.
That is well below pre-pandemic levels - with weekly flu cases in
ICUs peaking at over 400 at the same stage in 2018, for example.
But it is a big increase on last year, when there was only one flu
case in an ICU in the whole of December, data show.
The return of the virus could be the start of an unusually long flu
season that could stretch well into the summer, the ECDC's top
expert on influenza Pasi Penttinen told Reuters.
"If we start to lift all measures, the big concern I have for
influenza is that, because we have had such a long time of almost no
circulation in the European population, maybe we will shift away
from normal seasonal patterns," he said.
He said dismantling restrictive measures in the spring could prolong
the circulation of flu far beyond the normal end of the European
season in May.
A "twindemic" could put excessive pressure on already overstretched
health systems, the ECDC said in its report.
In France, three regions - including the Paris region - are facing a
flu epidemic, according to data published by the French health
ministry last week. Others are in a pre-epidemic phase.
This season, France has so far recorded 72 serious cases of flu,
with six deaths.
DOMINANT STRAIN
Further complicating matters, the dominant flu strain circulating
this year appears so far to be the H3 of the A virus, which usually
causes the most severe cases among the elderly.
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 Penttinen said it was too early
to make a final assessment of flu vaccines
because a larger number of ill patients was
needed for real-world analyses. But lab tests
show the vaccines available this year "are not
going to be optimal" against H3.
That is largely because there was very little or no virus
circulating when the vaccines' composition was decided last year,
making it harder for vaccine makers to predict which strain would be
dominant in the coming flu season.
Vaccines Europe, which represents top vaccine makers in the region,
acknowledged the strain selection was made more difficult by very
low flu circulation last year, but added there was not enough data
yet to assess the effectiveness of this season's shots.
Flu vaccines are adapted every year to make them as effective as
possible against ever-changing flu viruses. Their composition is
decided six months before the flu season kicks in, based on
circulation of viruses in the opposite hemisphere. That gives time
for drugmakers to develop and make the shots.
Europe-wide data on flu vaccine uptake is not yet available. But
national figures for France show coverage is not as broad as
authorities hoped for.
The authorities there extended by one month the vaccination period
to the end of February to boost inoculations. According to figures
released last week, 12 million people have so far been vaccinated,
about 45% of the targeted population.
"There is still a large room for improvement to limit the impact of
the flu epidemic," the health ministry said in a statement on Jan.
11. This year's target is to vaccinate 75% of people at risk.
Vaccines Europe said the industry had supplied large numbers of flu
shots, despite the strain on production facilities posed by the
pandemic.
(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio @fraguarascio; Editing by
Josephine Mason and and Mark Potter)
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