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The
U.S. Federal Reserve meets next week. It is expected to raise
rates in March, for the first time since the start of the
coronavirus pandemic, and investors are pricing in four rate
hikes in all during 2022.
As investors prepared for the possibility of the Fed being more
hawkish than expected, Treasury yields jumped, with two-year
yields - which track short-term rate expectations - crossing 1%
for the first time since February 2020.
The U.S. 10-year yield also hit a two-year high.
The dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies, hitting
a six-day high of 95.454 during Asian trading. At 1232 GMT it
was at 95.385, up 0.2% on the day.
Euro-dollar was down 0.1% at $1.1388.
German investor sentiment hit its highest in six months in
January on expectations the incidence of COVID-19 cases will
fall by early summer, allowing growth in Europe's largest
economy to pick up, the ZEW survey showed.
As oil prices hit a seven-year high and global equity markets
slumped, Germany's benchmark 10-year government bond yield came
close to, but did not exceed, 0%.
"We expect the U.S. rate rethink - and this latest shift higher
in yields reflects a push higher in the implied terminal rate,
rather than just a faster pace of increases initially - to
support the dollar in the first half of the year, while global
economic recovery will dominate in H2," Kit Jukes, head of FX
strategy at Societe Generale wrote in a note to clients.
"But Bund yields getting above zero will be an interesting test
for the dollar."
YEN SLIPPED
The yen slipped after the Bank of Japan said it would maintain
its ultra-loose monetary policy even as its global counterparts
move towards exiting crisis-mode policies.
At 1237 GMT, the dollar was flat against the yen at 114.6, with
the pair having reached as high as 115.06 overnight.
"We continue to expect the BoJ to stick to their current policy
framework until at least Governor Kuroda’s term ends next
April," wrote MUFG currency analyst Lee Hardman in a note to
clients.
"The widening divergence between BoJ and Fed policy expectations
should continue to place upward pressure on USD/JPY," he wrote.
However, Hardman noted that the pair failed to pass the 117
level as it strengthened this month.
"That failure and the fact that the market was short JPY means
the prospect of a quick rebound for USD/JPY is diminishing...
some USD/JPY recovery is feasible but this correction could be a
sign of the beginning of the end of the trend higher in USD/JPY,"
he said.
The Australian dollar fell, down 0.3% on the day at $0.71875.
The New Zealand dollar was also down 0.3%. [nL4N2TX3QH]
The British pound was down 0.4% at $1.3596. [nL1N2TY0J9]
China's central bank plans to do more to support growth, while
steadily lowering financing costs and keeping the yuan exchange
rate stable, the bank's vice governor said.
The central bank unexpectedly cut the borrowing costs of its
medium-term loans for the first time since April 2020, with
market analysts expecting more policy easing this year to
cushion an economic slowdown.
The yuan hit its highest in more than three years, helped by
trade settlement inflows.
Elsewhere, bitcoin was little changed around $41,800, still
significantly below the all-time high of $69,000 it hit last
November.
(Graphics: USDJPY:
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/mkt/gkvlgbzaxpb/USDJPY.png)
(Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft, editing by Ed Osmond and John
Stonestreet)
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