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A
survey of 35 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would
average around $91.15 a barrel this year, a jump from January's
$79.16 consensus and the highest 2022 estimate in all the
Reuters surveys.
U.S. crude was seen averaging $87.68 in 2022, versus January's
$76.23 consensus.
Among the most bullish predictions, JP Morgan expects $185 oil
by the end of 2022 if disruption to Russian exports lasts that
long, although its average for the year was $98.
The highest average predictions for 2022 were Rabobank and
Raiffeisen with $111.43 and $110 respectively.
"The risk premium is going through the roof," said Christian
Reuter, NORD Landbk's senior director of sector strategy, with
the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies
also unable to adequately compensate the shortfall.
Benchmark Brent crude broke above the $100 last week for the
first time since 2014 and hit $119.84 on Thursday. It was
trading above $112 on Friday, propped up by sanctions on Russia,
which ships more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd).
Although the oil and gas trade is not directly targeted,
customers have hesitated to buy Russian crude to avoid becoming
entangled in sanctions. [O/R]
"Prices could spike to $150 a barrel and even higher if the U.S.
and allies take even more aggressive steps to reduce oil exports
from Russia, as there is not sufficient spare capacity to offset
a significant reduction in Russian exports," said John Paisie,
president of Stratas Advisors.
An estimated 8% of global supply has been disrupted in recent
days. The shortfall may not be offset by the International
Energy Agency's decision to release 60 million barrels from
emergency reserves or a likely return of Iranian supply,
analysts said.
The IEA release represented a "one-month offset to a potential
disruption to one-third of Russia's 6 million barrel per day
seaborne oil export flows," Goldman Sachs said, adding a
short-term de-escalation or a faster ramp up in OPEC+ output
would not derail its view for structurally higher
prices.nFWN2V417Q]
DBS Bank lead energy analyst Suvro Sarkar said there could be
"some normalisation in the second half of 2022, but maybe not to
pre-conflict levels."
From an average forecast of $94.66 a barrel in the first
quarter, Brent prices would rise to $97.07, before easing
slightly to an average $87.08 in the last quarter and a
relatively subdued $82.94 consensus next year, the poll showed.
"The biggest downside risk stems from an economic slowdown that
is the result of unintended consequences stemming from the
sanctions and elevated energy prices -- coupled with a global
economy that is still dealing with supply chain issues," Paisie
from Stratas said.
Graphic: Oil price forecasts-
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/
mkt/akpezxnjevr/OPOLLFeb.png
(Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; editing by Arpan
Varghese, Noah Browning and Edmund Blair)
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