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The
planemaker has stopped making public predictions on when it will
win approval from U.S. regulators to resume deliveries, halted
for nearly a year by factory defects in a still-running saga
that is costing $5.5 billion overall.
But, the people said, it has discussed what some analysts
consider ambitious scenarios with parts makers as it surveys an
industry crippled by successive crises and now facing labor and
materials shortages deepened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Boeing's production strategy hinges on several key unknowns
including when deliveries restart, how quickly it can reduce an
overhang of more than 100 undelivered 787s and the extent to
which the Ukraine crisis dampens already weak demand.
While some industry sources have pegged a delivery restart as
early as next month, the date is increasingly under scrutiny
with April just days away.
Boeing's recovery plan could see it increase the current
rock-bottom monthly rate of two 787s to three around May, if
deliveries have started by then, and again to four around
November, two of the people said.
From there, suppliers have been asked to be ready to tackle
rates as high as seven a month around October 2023, if
requested, the sources added.
That is more than most analysts reckon the market will absorb
and the sources stressed no decision has been made on what, for
now, remains purely a planning scenario.
The more Boeing produces the harder it may be to shift the
backlog of undelivered planes.
Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu this week estimated monthly
output would stay at two in 2022, rising to 3.5 in 2023 but
remaining below 5 "to facilitate the burndown of inventory".
"April delivery restart may be aggressive," Kahyaoglu added.
Boeing has repeatedly referred questions on the timing to the
U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, which did not immediately
respond to a request for comment.
Boeing declined comment on the supplier targets and pointed to
comments in January when it said the 787 program remained at a
low rate, with an expected gradual return to five a month.
Planemakers frequently test scenarios to keep the supply chain
in battle mode ready for the next phase of competition.
"We will run our rate as low as we can while we burn our
inventory as fast as we can," Chief Executive Dave Calhoun said
in January, adding Boeing would monitor rates as demand grows.
RAMP-UP
The industry has meanwhile received mixed signals on demand for
wide-body jets which had peaked well before the pandemic.
Boeing has said it sees a full recovery in airline traffic that
underpins plane sales by the end of 2024.
But it has given what appears to be cautious guidance to one
supplier, saying that production for major 787 parts could reach
pre-pandemic levels by 2026-2027, one industry source said.
Forecasts for the second half of the decade are still at a very
preliminary stage, analysts say.
Boeing had no immediate comment on the supplier forecast.
Italy's Leonardo, which builds two fuselage sections for the 787
in southern Italy, said on Friday it plans to deliver just over
30 pairs of sections to Boeing this year, up from 28 last year.
Before the pandemic, Boeing was building around 12 of the
carbon-composite jets per month, a rate dragged down partially
by China-U.S. trade tensions.
Last month, the U.S. FAA revoked Boeing's ability to
self-certify newly built 787 aircraft ahead of delivery, raising
another potential hurdle to Boeing's plans.
Asked in January whether 787 deliveries would resume in April,
Calhoun said, "That's up to the FAA, and we're going to let them
do what they have to do."
(Reporting by Eric M. Johnson in Seattle, Francesca Landini in
Milan and Tim Hepher in Paris; Editing by Frank Jack Daniel)
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