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"The cost of stopping energy imports would be significant,
considering that the coronavirus pandemic cost about 4.5% in
economic output," said Andreas Peichl, head of the Ifo Center
for Macroeconomics and Surveys, on Monday.
Larger economic slumps and upheavals could not be ruled out
either, he added, as the strength of the potential shock
entailed high uncertainties for the modelling.
In addition, he said, it must be taken into account that large
parts of the industry have not yet recovered from the effects of
the pandemic.
Oil and coal could be replaced by imports from other countries,
but gas would not be so easy, the authors wrote.
"Germany should reduce its dependence on Russian gas quickly and
decisively," said Karen Pittel, head of the Ifo Center for
Energy, Climate and Resources.
First and foremost, she said, policy measures should aim to
increase incentives to replace and conserve fossil fuel as
quickly as possible, even if an embargo is not imminent.
($1 = 0.9131 euros)
(Reporting by Rene Wagner; Writing by Miranda Murray)
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