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The
Schrages live above the Groningen gas field, Europe's largest.
They have been opposing gas production since earthquakes started
to force them out of their homes a decade ago. Now, like a
majority of those polled in their province, they say that if it
would help Ukraine, they may allow more gas to be pumped out.
"I never thought the words would come out of my mouth," said
Bert Schrage, a former teaching assistant at Groningen
University, standing near a Ukrainian flag placed in his
windowsill.
The Schrages' house, a prefabricated building from 1997, had to
be demolished and rebuilt last year after it was declared unsafe
due to quakes triggered by the gas extraction. Nearly every
house in their village of 500 people, Overschild, needs to be
totally refurbished or replaced, the couple said. Residents
across the region have been campaigning for years for the gas
field to be shuttered.
"Putin managed to change my mind," said Schrage.
His response exemplifies a sudden shift in energy policy across
Europe that was triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine on
Feb. 24. The incursion, which Ukraine President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy likened to a new iron curtain falling across the
continent, has highlighted Europe's dependence on Russian energy
and triggered a scramble to secure scant non-Russian energy
sources – from the United States and Qatar to Japan, which will
divert some of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to
Europe.
Russia denies targeting civilians, saying it is conducting a
"special operation" to demilitarise Ukraine. Even as the
conflict rages, Russian gas is still flowing to Europe,
accounting for 40% of its total supplies. However, a Russian
foreign ministry official said on Saturday the European Union
would end up paying at least three times more for oil, gas and
electricity as a result of sanctions against Moscow.
From Germany to the United Kingdom, policymakers who were
pushing to cut back on hydrocarbons to slow climate change are
being forced to scale back those ambitions. Germany is
considering extending the lifespan of coal or even nuclear
plants. UK lawmakers have called on the government to lift a
moratorium on fracking.
The Groningen field contains roughly 450 billion cubic metres (bcm)
of recoverable gas. That's nearly three years' worth of European
imports from Russia, according to Rene Peters, a gas specialist
at the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Science, known by
its Dutch acronym TNO.
Fuel from Groningen has heated Dutch homes, generated
electricity and powered industry in the Netherlands and beyond
for half a century. Between 2000-2018, the Netherlands exported
202 billion euros ($221 billion) worth of gas to Germany,
Belgium and France, according to Statistics Netherlands.
Science has shown gas extraction can destabilise the land above
the deposits and the Dutch watchdog for gas production warned
last week that production, even at low levels, will increase the
risk of earthquakes to people living in unsafe homes.
"As long as people in Groningen run a higher risk of dying - due
to the collapse of houses as a result of a major earthquake or
due to stress and uncertainty - phasing out gas production and
quickly realising the reinforcements will remain necessary for
safety," said Theodor Kockelkoren, inspector general at the
State Supervisor of Mines.
The government said in a statement on Monday it still aims to
permanently close the field as soon as possible, or in 2023 or
2024. But it said new uncertainty, "partly due to the Russian
invasion of Ukraine," meant Groningen gas may be needed as a
last resort.
After years of quarreling about compensation with the government
and the Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM), the joint
venture between international oil majors Shell and Exxon Mobil
Corp. that manages production, many in Groningen oppose
increasing output. The NAM declined to comment for this story.
The Schrages say they had to tap 25,000 euros ($27,400) of their
retirement savings to finish rebuilding their home. They want
the government to promise to cover any costs from potential
further damage, but they add that the disruption would be worth
it if they could make a difference.
"Our entire town has been turned upside down," said Bert. "But
if we can turn that into something positive and contribute to
stopping the war in Ukraine, then we need to do that."
PROSPERITY AND PAIN
That would be a dramatic change for Groningers. Just weeks
before Russia invaded Ukraine, the Schrages, whose street is
littered with construction sites and abandoned homes, joined
thousands of protesters who marched with burning torches to
demand an end to the gas pumping.
The gas field, discovered in 1959, is one of the largest in the
world. It was in many ways a symbol of post-war prosperity for
the Netherlands, and for continental Europe as a whole.
When output peaked, in 1982, Groningen provided nearly a fifth
of the Netherlands' annual government budget. The proceeds
funded major infrastructure projects. Millions of households and
businesses were connected to a nationwide pipeline system that
generated electricity and spurred industrial growth.
The share that benefited Groningen itself was tiny, said Jan
Wigbolgus, who as head of the Groninger Gasberaad, a collective
of social groups, lobbied for locals to have their concerns
about gas production addressed.
Organised opposition started in 2009 but it took many years of
campaigning for residents to win repairs to their homes. It was
not until 2015 that the quakes were recognised as a safety risk
by the authorities.
The NAM long denied a link between the quakes and gas
production. In 2018, it agreed with the state to fund
compensation and has covered the bulk of the costs, but last
month it filed for arbitration over the ongoing payment of
damage claims.
A large quake could bring the walls down around many people. By
the end of January, just 14% of more than 27,000 houses found by
a government-ordered assessment to need reinforcement had been
declared safe, several years behind schedule, according to a
report by the National Coordinator for Groningen.
More than 200,000 damage reports have been filed since the
1990s, Wigbolgus said.
Ukraine has cast the Groningers' concerns in a new light.
The Schrages said the fighting there resurfaced memories of the
Nazi occupation of the Netherlands in World War Two, when men in
their province were forced to dig trenches and sea barriers were
broken open to cause flooding – part of a failed attempt to slow
advancing Allied troops.
Recent opinion polls by Dutch media indicate the government
could count on popular support if it were to abandon the policy
of reducing extraction to zero, if that led to lower Russian
natural gas imports.
A majority of 61% out of 3,000 respondents in Groningen told a
poll for the Dagblad van Noorden newspaper they would support
higher local production if it reduced dependence on Moscow,
which supplies as much as 20% of gas used by the Netherlands.
A national poll for current affairs programme EenVandaag on
Dutch public television in late February, for which more than
21,000 people were questioned, found 63% would support resuming
Groningen extraction if Russia were to cut off exports to
Europe.
"Here, houses might collapse due to safety problems," Wigbolgus
said. "There, there is real bloodshed."
BACKLASH
Moscow's Ukraine campaign has prompted a wider backlash against
Russian oil and gas. The United States banned Russian oil
imports, while the European Commission published plans to slash
Russian gas imports by two-thirds this year. Non-Russian
liquefied natural gas and pipeline imports could this year
replace more than a third of the 155 bcm Europe gets annually
from Russia, the Commission said.
Western sanctions targeting Russia's economy and Putin's
supporters could escalate the confrontation with the Kremlin,
which has threatened to retaliate by cutting off the major Nord
Stream pipeline carrying gas to Germany, said gas expert Peters.
If that happened, increasing Groningen output could help parts
of neighbouring Germany, Belgium and northern France that can
use Dutch gas, said Peters.
But, like other short-term solutions such as increasing use of
coal-fired electricity plants, that would undermine efforts to
reduce fossil fuel, he said.
(Reporting by Anthony Deutsch; Additional reporting by Nina
Chestney in London, Toby Sterling and Bart Meijer in Amsterdam
and Maria Sheahan in Berlin; Editing by Sara Ledwith)
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