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 It’s been two years since Gov. J.B. Pritzker
imposed COVID-19 mitigation mandates across Illinois, dictating what actions
were and weren’t permissible. The cost, even after two years, is more than
200,000 jobs still missing from the state’s economy, 317,600 Illinoisans
currently out of work, and the 5% unemployment rate is 41st highest in the
nation.
All told, Illinois has made one of the worst employment recoveries in the
nation.
Ten states have all already surpassed their pre-pandemic employment levels,
according to data released March 14 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Illinois is still missing 200,100 jobs compared to January 2020, when the
state’s job numbers peaked. Illinois’ jobs market remains one of the least
recovered of any Midwestern state.
Illinois has only recovered 76% of the jobs the state lost during the onset of
the pandemic and state-mandated shutdowns – 14th worst in the nation, and the
fourth least of any state in the Midwest. Meanwhile, South Dakota, Indiana and
Missouri are the most recovered Midwestern states, each having recovered more
than 90% of their states’ job losses.
The pain of job losses in early 2020 and Illinois’ slow employment recovery can
be felt across nearly every industry in the state. While total payrolls were
down 1.8% nationally in January 2022 relative to the country’s pre-pandemic
peak, Illinois jobs were down 3.3% from their peak. The results are even worse
when broken down by industry.
Employment counts across virtually all major industries in Illinois lag the
national average. The only industry in which Illinois has performed better than
the national average is “other services,” with payrolls down 5.1% versus 5.7%
nationally. The gap is especially painful in the leisure and hospitality sector,
where 42% of Illinois’ missing jobs come from. In that industry, Illinois’
payrolls are down 13.4% – 84,000 jobs – while U.S. payrolls are only down 10.1%.
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As more and more states make a full employment recovery, Illinois’ outcomes
remain markedly worse than most other states in virtually every industry. Only
Illinois’ professional and business services sector has outperformed most other
states since job losses began in 2020.
Illinois’ downturn and sluggish recovery relative to other states has been
particularly pronounced in the leisure and hospitality sector, which only
outperformed six states during the past two years. Meanwhile, the government
sector has also shed a particularly large number of jobs in Illinois relative to
other states. Of the government job losses in Illinois, 99% have come from state
and local governments, not federal jobs.
State and local governments across Illinois are faced with large fixed costs in
the form of pension obligations that make it difficult for governments to pursue
expansionary policy amid downturns. Rather than providing tax relief or
increasing services for Illinoisans during trying times, Illinoisans are subject
to service cuts despite rising taxes.
A proposal on the Nov. 8 ballot would exacerbate this issue and likely make
downturns even more painful in Illinois if voters approve it. Amendment 1 would
change the Illinois Constitution to grant unions in Illinois more extreme powers
than they have in any other state, including the ability to bargain over
virtually limitless subjects, the ability to override state law through their
contracts, and a guarantee that taxpayers and lawmakers would have an extremely
difficult time reversing course.
Should Amendment 1 pass, Illinois’ $317 billion pension debt will continue to
balloon as state and local taxes, which are already the among the highest in the
nation, rise in an attempt to keep up. Spending on vital programs will continue
to fall.
Illinois needs reform that will rein in the state’s cost drivers and deliver
services to residents when they need them most. Amendment 1 will make that much
more difficult.
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