U.S. Census update for Illinois contradicts independent outbound
migration analysis
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[May 21, 2022] By
Kevin Bessler | The Center Square
(The Center Square) – After a report that
the U.S. Census undercounted the population of the state of Illinois,
government leaders were quick to proclaim that Illinois is growing, but
others disagree.
According to U.S. Census Post Enumeration survey, Illinois’ population
was undercounted by nearly 2%, the equivalent of 250,000 people. That's
a swing of 268,000 people from the previous Census report showing 18,000
fewer people in the state. The results do not change the official
population numbers of Illinois, nor do they affect congressional
reapportionment. Illinois lost a congressional seat following the 2020
Census because of population decline.
“These latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Illinois is
now a state on the rise with a growing population,” Gov. J.B. Pritzker
said in a statement.
In a statement, Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch,
D-Hillside, said the corrected count “confirms what Democrats have been
saying all along: Illinois is growing, Illinois is thriving, and
Illinois has so much to offer.”
Ted Dabrowski, president of the nonprofit Wirepoints, said the latest
estimate of a population gain in the state doesn’t make sense.
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“I think it is going to leave a lot of people confused because the data
doesn’t square up with domestic outmigration numbers we see from the
IRS," said Dabrowski. "It doesn't square up with U-Haul and other moving
companies that show how many people are leaving Illinois."
One of those moving companies is Allied Van Lines. In its Allied Magnet
States report, Illinois had the highest percentage of outbound residents
in 2021, more than any other state.
“Illinois is primarily about work and cost of living,” Allied President
Steve McKenna said. “People are looking to lower their cost of living by
buying the Sun Belt.”
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Illinois Policy was quick to point out Pritzker’s “false narrative” that
Illinois has a growing population. The nonprofit think tank highlighted
the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program (PEP), which shows
Illinois’ population declined each year since 2014, including last year,
when its numbers showed a record-setting loss of 114,000 residents.
Illinois Policy noted the Post Enumeration Survey measures population
levels and is used to check for how accurate the census count was. The
PEP is about measuring population change, and it shows Illinois is the
only state with accelerating population loss for eight straight years.
“Anyone claiming the PES shows the Illinois exodus isn’t real – or
population decline isn’t a problem in Illinois – is being extremely
misleading," Illinois Policy's Austin Berg wrote on Twitter. "Denying
population decline and outmigration isn't noble. It's willfully
ignorant. And it doesn't get us closer to fixing our problems."
Kevin Bessler reports on statewide issues in Illinois for the Center
Square. He has over 30 years of experience in radio news reporting
throughout the Midwest. |