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IRS DATA CONFIRMS ILLINOIS IS LOSING RESIDENTS, WEALTH FLIGHT AT RECORD
PACE
Illinois Policy Institute
| Bryce Hill
Illinois lost more than 100,000 residents and $8.5 billion on net in
adjusted gross income to other states from 2019-2020, according to new
federal tax return data. Those leaving earned $31K more than those
coming in.
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 The Internal Revenue
Service is reporting Illinois is losing: 100,921 residents; $8.5 billion total
that they earned; and those leaving the state earn $31,000 more than those
moving into Illinois.
New 2020 tax return data released May 24 by the Internal Revenue Service
confirms Illinois continues to lose large numbers of residents to other states
as well as their income. From 2019-2020, Illinois lost 100,921 residents and
nearly $8.5 billion in adjusted gross income on net to other states.
The massive decline in Illinois’ population was a
result of Illinois losing residents to nearly every other state. On net,
Illinois lost people to 44 of the 50 states.
The most popular destinations for Illinoisans were
Florida (-16,575); Indiana (-11,969); Texas (-10,894); Wisconsin (-7,664); and
Arizona (-7,442). Illinois lost residents to every neighboring state during the
year. Meanwhile, the six states from which Illinois attracted residents on net,
only added 2,573 residents to population totals.
The $8.5 billion in income lost was not only
because more people moved out than in. It also was because those who left
Illinois earned significantly more than those moving into the state. Illinoisans
leaving the state earned nearly $31,000 (41%) more than those who moved into the
state.
Illinoisans fleeing the state earn an average of
$105,871 per tax return, while those moving into the state earn only $75,265 per
tax return, a loss to Illinois of $30,606 per return.
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The IRS data is just the latest to
confirm Illinois is losing population, despite incorrect assertions
otherwise. Estimates of components of population change from the
Census Bureau, which is the most complete dataset available, have
also pinpointed domestic migration as the sole driver of Illinois’
population decline. The Census Bureau uses IRS migration data – as
well as other data – to construct their domestic migration and
population change estimates. These estimates are in line with past
IRS data.
The IRS data likely underestimates
Illinois’ outmigration, because 32 million households (18%)
nationwide don’t file federal tax returns and changes in filing
activity can prevent matching tax returns year-to-year.
As more and more data continues to confirm Illinois has a serious
exodus, Gov. J.B. Pritzker has attempted to take advantage of
confusion surrounding Census Bureau data to claim Illinois is
growing. The root causes of Illinois’ population struggles remain
jobs, housing and tax policy.
Rather than trying to spin population data for political gain during
a reelection campaign, Pritzker should focus on reforms to address
Illinois’ $313 billion pension debt that is eating state revenues
and crowding out valuable services for residents. It is also forcing
them to pay the highest taxes in the Midwest.
Ignoring or denying there is a population problem makes it worse. So
does having fewer people to pay those high taxes. |
