LDN - Business

World stocks stuck as U.S. midterms too close to call

[November 09, 2022] By Dhara Ranasinghe and Nell Mackenzie

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks stalled below recent seven-week highs on Wednesday, while the dollar was steady as investors awaited the results of the closely-watched U.S. midterm elections.

Bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, was again under pressure and fell more than 3%, a day after sliding 11%.

European stock markets were lower, U.S. equity futures were mixed and Asian shares edged up as the U.S. midterm election results rolled in. This all left MSCI's World Stock Index stuck just below Tuesday's seven-week peak.

Control of the U.S. Congress was up for grabs after the elections, with many of the most competitive races uncalled, leaving it unclear whether Republicans would crack Democrats' tenuous hold on power.

"It does look like it's a bit tighter than expected. The expectation is still for the Republicans to flip the House of Representatives," said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index in London.

"U.S. stock futures are pushing higher on the idea of political gridlock being favourable for stocks, as it has been historically."

Stock markets have tended to perform better under a split government when a Democrat is in the White House, with investors attributing some of that performance to political gridlock that prevents either side from making major policy changes.

Average annual S&P 500 returns have been 14% in a split Congress and 13% in a Republican-held Congress under a Democratic president, according to data since 1932 analyzed by RBC Capital Markets. That compares with 10% when Democrats controlled the presidency and Congress.

Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital said potential political gridlock in Washington likely meant the end of tax rises on corporations and the well-off proposed by President Joe Biden.

"But looming larger now is the prospect of another battle over raising the U.S. debt ceiling and the prospect for government shutdowns while the Democrats and Republicans argue over it," he said.

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Silhouettes of passerby are seen as they walk in front of an electric monitor displaying Japan's Nikkei share average in Tokyo, Japan, October 21, 2022 REUTERS/Issei Kato

In Asia, Japan's blue-chip Nikkei stock index retreated from a two-month high as poor results from videogame maker Nintendo weighed. Chinese shares slipped as data showed China's producer prices fell for the first time since December 2020, underscoring faltering domestic demand amid COVID-19 curbs.

CRYPTO WOES

Focus remained on crypto currencies a day after crypto giant Binance signed a nonbinding agreement to buy FTX's non-U.S. unit to help cover a "liquidity crunch" at the rival exchange, in a stunning bailout that raised fresh concerns among investors about cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin was last down over 3% at $17,917, while FTX's native token slid a further 27%.

With attention on the U.S. midterm election and Thursday's key inflation numbers, trading more broadly in currency markets was generally subdued.

The dollar was down around a fifth of a percent at 145.45 yen, while the euro was just a touch softer at $1.0064.

Economists expect Thursday's inflation data to show a decline in yearly core numbers to 6.5% in October from 6.6% a month earlier.

U.S. money markets price in a 50 basis point Fed interest rate hike in December and a roughly 33% chance of a bigger 75-bps increase.

Oil prices edged lower as industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected and on worries a rebound in COVID-19 cases in top importer China would hurt fuel demand. U.S. crude fell around 0.7% to $88.22 per barrel and Brent was at $94.78, down 0.6% on the day. [O/R]

(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe and Nell Mackenzie; Additional reporting by Ankur Banerjee in SINGAPORE and Lucy Raitano in LONDON; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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