Marketmind: Consumer inflation, crypto deflation

[November 10, 2022]  A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.

Wall St shivered after this week's indecisive U.S mid-term elections, but Wednesday's steep market losses were just as much down to the implosion in crypto assets, severe tech sector troubles and trepidation ahead of Thursday's key U.S. inflation update.

Annual consumer price rises are expected to have eased back a touch last month to 8.0%, the lowest since February, with core inflation rates ticking lower to 6.5%. Falling used car prices, one aggravator of inflation indices over the past year, will be watched closely - as will the relative calm in oil prices.

Oil extended losses on Thursday for a fourth day as renewed COVID curbs in China raised concern about fuel demand in the world's biggest crude importer. Hurricane Nicole also weakened to a tropical storm as it headed over Florida toward Georgia.

But for all the tension in markets around the inflation release, any hope that one month's data will alter the Federal Reserve's tightening course received a knock back.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it's "entirely premature" to discuss any pivot away from the Fed's current policy course. "We are on a good path right now: I think we are united in our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%."

That tightening won't do anything to help the doom and gloom in crypto world.

Cryptocurrencies teetered on Thursday after a week of eye-watering losses and existential fears for the whole sector as crypto exchange FTX faces collapse now that rival Binance has walked away from a last-minute bailout. Bitcoin, which has seen more than a quarter of its value disappear since Saturday, fell below $16,000 for the first time in two years before stabilising just above that level early on Thursday.

Broader markets were steady to negative around the world, mostly in a holding pattern ahead of the inflation report.

Given the extent to which Russia's invasion of Ukraine this year transformed the energy, inflation and economic fortunes of the world for the worst, investors were watching battlefield developments and reports of 'talks about talks' very closely.

In a major development on Wednesday, Moscow ordered troops to withdraw from near the strategic southern Ukrainian city of Kherson in one of its biggest setbacks of the war so far - even though Ukraine said it was doubtful Russian troops would leave without a fight.

Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 13, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

Reports of some movement toward negotiations come ahead of the G20 summit in Indonesia next week. Russia's President Vladimir Putin will not be at the summit in person, but host Indonesia said on Thursday he may join a session virtually.

The United States and China also laid out markers this week ahead of an expected meeting between their presidents at the summit.

China stocks fell anew however - largely amid COVID concerns. Chinese authorities should take a more targeted approach to tackle COVID outbreaks and avoid extra "layers" of measures, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported, as cities reeled under tighter curbs as new cases spread.

In Japan, the yen held steady after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said any future debate on an exit from the central banks' ultra-loose monetary policy will centre on the pace of increase in short-term interest rates and adjustments in the bank's massive balance sheet.

In banking, shares in Credit Agricole fell 4% after the French bank missed revenue estimates for the third quarter, driven by weaker trading proceeds and withdrawals at asset manager Amundi.

Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:

* U.S. Oct consumer price index, weekly jobless claims, Oct Federal Budget

* New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan, Kansas City Fed chief Esther George all speak

* U.S. Treasury auctions 30-year bonds

* U.S. Corporate Earnings: Ralph Lauren, Tapestry etc

* Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks

(By Mike Dolan - [e-mail], @reutersMikeD; editing by Andrew Heavens)

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