Tense runoff vote looms as Brazil's Bolsonaro outperforms polling

[October 03, 2022]  By Lisandra Paraguassu and Maria Carolina Marcello

SAO PAULO/BRASILIA (Reuters) - The second round of Brazil's presidential election campaign kicked off Monday after far-right President Jair Bolsonaro outperformed polling and robbed leftist ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of outright victory in the first round of voting.

The unexpectedly strong showing by Bolsonaro on Sunday dashed hopes for a quick resolution to the deeply polarized election in the world's fourth-largest democracy. It also revitalized the president's campaign, setting the stage for a highly competitive and tense run-off on Oct. 30.

With 99.9% of electronic votes counted, Lula had taken 48.4% of votes versus 43.2% for Bolsonaro, prompting the runoff as neither garnered a majority.

The race has proven tighter than most surveys suggested, giving momentum to Bolsonaro, who had insisted the polls could not be trusted. If he pulls off a comeback, it would break with a wave of victories for leftists across the region in recent years, including Mexico, Colombia, Argentina and Chile.

Capital Economics said in a note that Lula was still the favorite to be elected. But it said Bolsonaro and his allies' "surprisingly strong performance" will provide severe obstacles to governing Latin America's biggest country.

"That should help to temper fears of a sharp shift to the left," it wrote.

Adding to tensions, Bolsonaro has made baseless attacks on the integrity of Brazil's electronic voting system and suggested he may not concede if he loses.

On Sunday night, he sounded confident that victory was within reach and avoided criticism of the voting system.

"I plan to make the right political alliances to win this election," he told journalists, pointing to significant advances his party made in Congress in the general election.

Bolsonaro's right-wing allies won 19 of the 27 seats up from grabs in the Senate, and initial returns suggested a strong showing for his base in the lower house.

The good showing by Bolsonaro and his allies raised pressure on Lula to tack to the center. It also led bankers and analysts to expect a boost for Brazilian financial markets on Monday.

Brazil's President and presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro speaks after the results of the first round of Brazil's presidential election, at the Alvorada Palace in Brasilia , Brazil October 2, 2022. REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino

Lula put an optimistic spin on the result, saying he was looking forward to another month on the campaign trail and the chance to debate Bolsonaro head-to-head.

Inside his campaign, however, there was clear frustration that he had fallen short of the narrow majority forecast in some polls, along with weak results in state races outside of his party's traditional northeastern stronghold.

"There was a clear movement of votes in the southeast, beyond what the surveys and even the campaign managed to detect," a campaign source said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Support for distant third- and fourth-place finishers also fell short of recent surveys, suggesting some of their backers may have shifted to Bolsonaro when it came time to vote.

Centrist Senator Simone Tebet, who drew 4% of votes, and center-left former lawmaker Ciro Gomes, who secured 3%, both said on Sunday night they would announce decisions about endorsements in the coming days.

With the momentum in Bolsonaro's favor, Lula may need all the help he can get.

"Clearly Bolsonarismo was underestimated," said Senator Humberto Costa, a compatriot of Lula's Workers Party.

(Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu in Sao Paulo and Maria Carolina Marcello in Brasilia; Additional repoting by Eduardo Simoes in Sao Paulo and Ricardo Brito in Brasilia; Writing by Anthony Boadle; Editing by Gerry Doyle and Mark Heinrich)

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