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The
peso-dollar exchange rate would ease 4.15% from its current
levels if the forecast is met.
"Fiscal austerity, Mexico's attractiveness for nearshoring and a
shrinking investment universe, as Russia is no longer an option
and Chinese politics are posing worries, are factors making
Mexico look like candy," Gabriel Casillas, Barclays' chief
economist for Latin America, said at a news conference.
Barclay's forecast paints a more optimistic scenario for the
emerging-market currency after a Moody's analyst predicted a 20%
depreciation spread through late 2022 and 2023 and even into
2024.
Asked about the Moody's prediction of a coming correction,
Barclays analyst Erick Martinez noted his "clear disagreement"
with it.
Martinez noted the Mexican peso could experience episodes of
volatility if economic troubles deepen at the beginning of 2023,
but would regain attractive levels as central banks ease their
monetary policies.
"The dollar is overvalued precisely because the U.S. Federal
Reserve's monetary policy is very restrictive," he added. "As it
relaxes, the dollar will return to its fair value. I don't see
the dollar becoming stronger in a context of crisis in the
United States."
Barclays also projected Mexico's economic growth for 2023 at
0.9%, down from the 2.5% expected for 2022, following a possible
global economic recession during the first two quarters of 2023.
The firm noted Mexico will experience no growth during the first
quarter of 2023 and will hit a negative 0.1% advance during the
second quarter.
(Reporting by Valentine Hilaire in Mexico City; Editing by
Matthew Lewis)
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