Marketmind: Inflated hopes?

[September 13, 2022]  A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Traders in Asia hit pause on four days of selling dollars and buying stocks as focus turns on U.S. inflation figures set for release at 1230 GMT. Today's data will frame the Fed's policy meeting next week and set the tone for weeks to come.

British employment and a potentially ugly German sentiment survey are due ahead of the U.S. data, but are likely to be overshadowed.

Consumers' inflation expectations are falling, Monday's New York Fed survey showed, and markets are hoping for another signal that the inflation peak is firmly in the rear-view mirror.

Economists' expectations are for a slowdown in headline CPI, thanks to oil and a host of other commodity prices backing down from peaks, but for core prices to stay sticky.

Economists and the market also reckon the Fed is likely to hike by 75 basis points on Sept. 21, so perhaps the data's largest impact may be on moves beyond that.

Concurrent with the data, industrial disputes on the U.S. railways are worth a wary eye as workers press for big pay rises. The railroads account for nearly a third of U.S. cargo transport by weight and the first strikes since the 1990s are a distinct possibility this week.

People push shopping cart in a Carrefour supermarket in Cabrera de Mar, near Barcelona, Spain May 19, 2017. REUTERS/Albert Gea/File Photo

At midday on Wednesday, Norfolk Southern will stop accepting intermodal cargo. Big railway operators have until a minute after midnight on Friday to reach deals with unions or risk opening the door to strikes.

Railroads already suspended carriage of hazardous loads like fertiliser so they aren't stranded if networks grind to a halt.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

UK employment data, final German CPI, German and Euro zone ZEW surveys and U.S. inflation data

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

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