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the end of 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) will be about 8%
below where output was in 2021, according to the credit rating
watchdog's forecast.
The Russian economy expanded by 4.7% in 2021, according to
federal statistics service Rosstat.
After 2023, potential growth will drop to 1.0-1.5% a year from
the 1.5-2.0% achieved before the war, the agency said.
"The Russian government, helped by the Bank of Russia, has used
windfall export revenues to mitigate the immediate domestic
economic impact of the war in Ukraine and sanctions, but the
longer-term outlook has worsened," said Scope analyst Levon
Kameryan.
Accelerating capital outflows, limited access to Western
technology and negative demographic trends will continue to
hamper growth and compound the effects of the war and sanctions
in the absence of any significant economic restructuring,
according to the report.
About four times as much private capital - $64.2 billion -
flowed out of Russia in the first quarter of 2022 alone compared
with the same quarter last year, said the report.
The Scope report predicts that the private sector will withdraw
more capital from Russia this year than the $152 billion pulled
out in 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimea.
(Reporting by Rene Wagner, Writing by Miranda Murray, Editing by
Rachel More, William Maclean)
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