Brazil institutions ready to confront Bolsonaro if he contests election
result
Send a link to a friend
[September 19, 2022]
By Anthony Boadle and Ricardo Brito
BRASILIA (Reuters) - As President Jair
Bolsonaro lays the groundwork to contest a potential defeat in an
October election, Brazil's courts, congressional leadership, business
groups and civil society are closing ranks to shore up trust in the
integrity of the vote.
Even leaders of the armed forces, now more entwined in government than
at any point since a 1964-1985 military dictatorship, offer private
assurances to former peers that they want no part in disrupting
democratic order, according to a half dozen former officials with close
ties to military leadership.
The result is a far-right populist firebrand trailing in the polls with
few institutional levers to derail the electoral process – but enough
hardcore supporters to fill the streets with angry demonstrations if he
cries foul as many expect.
"One thing is certain about this election: President Bolsonaro will only
accept one result – victory. Any other result will be contested," said
Camilo Caldas, a constitutional law professor at St. Jude University in
Sao Paulo.
When pressed in interviews, Bolsonaro says he will respect the election
result as long as voting is "clean and transparent," without defining
any criteria.
Many believe that leaves room for turbulence after the vote. Electoral
officials warn of an uprising inspired by the invasion of the U.S.
Capitol in Washington last year if Bolsonaro loses to leftist former
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, as polls suggest.
For more than a year, Bolsonaro has insisted to his base without
evidence that the polls are lying, Brazil's electronic voting system is
open to tampering, and Supreme Court justices overseeing elections could
rig the vote in Lula's favor.
Even one of Bolsonaro's campaign advisers, who requested anonymity to
speak freely, could not rule out violent post-election demonstrations if
the president challenges the results: "Bolsonaro is absolutely
unpredictable. There could be trouble."
Bolsonaro has shown he can easily mobilize tens of thousands of
supporters, as he did at Independence Day rallies this month.
Demonstrators cited the big crowds as evidence that opinion polls are
skewed and electoral fraud is Lula's only hope.
"If Lula wins, you can be sure there was major fraud and people will be
really upset," said retired naval captain Wilson Lima, an organizer of
the Bolsonaro rally in Brasilia. "An angry population will run amok. God
knows what can happen."
Determined to avoid that, major Brazilian institutions have spent the
past year trying to get ahead of Bolsonaro.
Congress voted down his push for a return to paper ballots. Election
officials created a "transparency commission" with tech experts, civic
groups and government organs to review security measures and endorse
best election practices. A record number of foreign observers are coming
to monitor the vote.
Business leaders have also penned public declarations of their faith in
the electoral system. Supreme Court Justice Jose Antonio Dias Toffoli
told journalists in Sao Paulo that the business community understood a
break with democracy would be "economic suicide," given the risk of
sanctions from Europe and other Western powers.
Allies such as the United States have also signaled both publicly and
privately what they expect from the second-largest democracy in the
Western Hemisphere.
The director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Bill Burns, last
year told Bolsonaro's senior aides that he should stop casting doubt on
Brazil's electronic voting system, Reuters reported in May.
International election experts have praised Brazil's electronic voting
machines for ending widespread fraud in the tabulation of paper ballots
before 1996, with no cases of fraud detected since then despite
Bolsonaro's accusations.
TRUMP PLAYBOOK
The issue has unsettled many in Washington who see Bolsonaro following
in the steps of former President Donald Trump, whose baseless
allegations of fraud in the 2020 U.S. election were echoed by the
Brazilian leader even after the Capitol invasion.
[to top of second column]
|
Electronic voting machines are prepared
to be used in the first round of Brazilian presidential elections,
at the headquarters of the Electoral Court in Brasilia, Brazil
August 22, 2022. REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino/File Photo
Bolsonaro was one of the last world leaders to recognize President
Joe Biden's electoral victory. The Brazilian president has warned
that the aftermath of Brazil's election this year could be worse
than the fallout from that contested U.S. vote.
However, while Trump was able to unleash a blitz of lawsuits and
political pressure on elected officials responsible for counting
votes, voting in Brazil is run by federal electoral courts whose
judges show no qualms about standing up to Bolsonaro.
In particular, Bolsonaro's attacks on the Supreme Electoral Tribunal
(TSE) and its head, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre Moraes, seem to
have only steeled the resolve of the judge and his colleagues.
Even as Moraes has acted more unilaterally than some of his
predecessors, he enjoys ample backing among fellow Supreme Court
judges, according to two people familiar with the institution.
Bolsonaro has hurled abuse at Moraes for overseeing an investigation
of his supporters, who allegedly spread libel and misinformation
online. Last year, he called Moraes a "crook" and briefly refused to
obey the judge's rulings.
In Brasilia's corridors of power, however, uneasiness over the
judge's hardball tactics has taken a back seat as his peers and most
politicians present a united front in defense of the courts and the
electoral process.
When Moraes took the reins of the TSE last month, his speech
praising the electronic voting system was met with a standing
ovation from an audience that included four former presidents, some
20 current state governors and an array of party leaders. Bolsonaro
looked on sternly without applauding.
MILITARY IN SPOTLIGHT
Even the army officials tasked by Bolsonaro with digging into the
alleged vulnerabilities of Brazil's voting system have been pleased
with the openness of Moraes to their requests since he took over the
TSE, according to a senior military officer, who declined to be
named due to military protocol.
Invited by the TSE to join its transparency commission, Brazil's
armed forces have taken an unprecedented role in probing the
security of the country's voting system.
Critics question the military's prominence in the process,
especially as its concerns have echoed Bolsonaro's rhetoric about
potential fraud. The president, a former army captain, has packed
his cabinet with former military officers, while telling rallying
supporters that the armed forces are "on our side."
However, the armed forces seem to have stopped short of setting up a
"parallel count" on election night as Bolsonaro has suggested.
Instead, military representatives plan to make spot checks of voting
machines, comparing the paper readouts at a few hundred voting
stations with the results sent to the TSE server.
It is an unusual task for the armed forces in Brazil's young
democracy, but military brass insist it is not a sign of political
ambitions.
Former Defense Minister Raul Jungmann ruled out any risk of a coup,
contrasting the country today with Brazil in 1964: the military
takeover that year was openly supported by many of Brazil's business
elites, middle class families, churches and mainstream media – a far
cry from the current environment.
"There is no way military commanders will risk getting involved in
an adventure," said a seasoned politician in regular conversation
with military chiefs.
(Reporting by Anthony Boadle and Ricardo Brito; Additional reporting
by Lisandra Paraguassu; Editing by Brad Haynes and Ross Colvin)
[© 2022 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content.
|