|
While faster-moving surveys last week seemed to paint a picture
of a March slowdown, Good Friday's non-farm payrolls figures
suggested the jobs market remains solid, with unemployment back
at more than 50-year lows.
It could be a case of laggy data, and to be sure market
attention is on whether banks tighten up lending in the wake of
last month's confidence wobbles, and on how and when that would
flow through to the real economy of jobs, wages and spending.
Earnings for Citi, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase & Co later in
the week will be in focus for colour on financial conditions.
Inflation figures due Wednesday can also help markets to gauge
how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be.
Yet in the meantime a measure of confidence is coalescing around
the U.S. interest rate outlook. Friday's jobs data lifted
yields, but didn't substantially shift a bigger picture view
that hikes are all but finished and cuts are coming.
Futures pricing implies one more 25 bp hike is likely in May and
that it won't stick - the entire U.S. curve from three months to
30 years is below 5%, the upper reach of the current Fed funds
target window.
In Asia, markets that were open in holiday-thinned trading
nudged higher, shaking off, for now, a round of sabre rattling
across the Taiwan Strait.
China is running military exercises in the wake of Taiwan's
president visiting the United States, while the U.S. scrambles
to find the source of a damaging document leak.
Australia, Hong Kong and most markets in Europe were closed for
Easter Monday.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
BOJ Governor Ueda gives inaugural press conference
World Bank, IMF spring meetings begin
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
[© 2023 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content.
|
|
